[badgers]

In December of 1994 the 10 year minus 2 year was at 0.15 (currently it is 0.18 in Feb 2018), but then we had to wait for the next recession until 2001. It could go back up like in August of 1984 or January 1995, or continue downward and put us in a recession in a couple years.

[dragontamer]

Fair, we're not in a 10-year inverted scenario yet. But we're pretty close.

> (currently it is 0.18 in Feb 2018)

Note that the 1-year is inverted with the 2-year. So while 10year-2year is 0.18, the 10year-1year is 0.1.

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/i...

The lower-end of the curve is ALREADY inverted. But that's not "the indicator", the 10-year is the indicator that is tracked. Still, seeing the curve invert between 1-year and 5-years is worrysome to me.

This is a less reliable indicator: but when the lower end of the curve inverts, usually the higher end inverts soon afterwards as well.

[mywittyname]

I think we dipped briefly during intraday trading a few weeks ago.

[dragontamer]

On the 10-year?

We've definitely dipped on the 5-year and 7-year. But I'm not aware of any inversion on the 10-year (even an intra-day one). Or was it on the Global Bond market? (I think I recall one story about the global bond market becoming inverted...)

Hmmm... do you have a citation by any chance? I'm definitely interested if you can remember where you saw that data, for the full details of the situation.

[mywittyname]

Turns out I misremembered. I was thinking of the inversion which happened in December, which was as you said, the 3- and 5- year briefly inverted (by 1 basis point).