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by jim-greer 2686 days ago
It’s more realistic than becoming an astronaut, but not by much.

TechCrunch says there were 23 billion dollar exits in the first eight months of 2018. Call it 35 per year.

That’s about as likely as being on a Superbowl-winning football team.

Young people often neglect realistic opportunities for success to chase unrealistic dreams. As do entrepreneurs.

https://techcrunch.com/2018/08/18/global-unicorn-exits-hit-m...

4 comments

"It's more realistic [to create a billion-dollar company] than to become an astronaut"

You're missing half of the equation. There are a relatively tiny number of people (I assume mostly scientists and military pilots) who have set themselves the goal of becoming an astronaut and are working towards it in a concrete way.

In contrast, virtually everyone is trying to make money, and a huge number of people create companies. Not everyone has "a billion dollars" as their specific goal, but the implicit goal of "as much money as possible" is not uncommon.

Having a goal of “as much money as possible“ is very different from the VC fueled goal of Billion dollars or bust. Trying to draw parallels between everyone who starts a company and the select few who aim specifically to become astronauts is like comparing attempts at moonshot companies with everyone who “wants to do something in stem”
If you think the majority of business owners don't want their businesses to grow....you're in for a rude awakening.

The allure of technology in general and silicon valley in particular is the amount of sheer wealth that you can create very quickly.

And the point he's making is that "wanting your business to grow" has almost absolutely nothing to do with wanting a billion dollar business.

It's like an athlete saying "I want to increase my endurance" vs "I want to be am ultramarathoner".

The way you train, what you do, how you spend your time, how much time you spend, the risks you take - entirely different worlds. Wanting a billion dollar business is not remotely in the minds of 99%+ of business owners.

The great thing about software entrepreneurship is that your plan B is pretty decent as well.

I failed at building a billion-dollar company too, a decade ago, but my consolation prize was working for Google, which was pretty good. Still working on building a billion-dollar company the second time around. I work harder and make less than I would've if I'd stayed at Google, but I'm not really passing up too much. Mostly just the opportunity to own an overpriced Silicon Valley quarter-acre Eichler.

What you say is absolutely true. But on the flip side, young people chasing unrealistic dreams is why we have a lot of art, music, literature, science, business and progress.

Where would rock and roll or rap be if so many young people didn't "foolishly" pursue their dreams? Where would technology and the internet be?

And isn't it simply the nature of the pursuit? If a pursuit is "high risk and high reward", it naturally creates a few spectacular successes and a bunch of "failures".

Perhaps it is ill-advised to spend valuable career time on unrealistic goals, but that is subjective after all. And even for the cautious, it is great that there are resources right here to assist with life-style through unicorn start ups.

And while I assume ycombinator's target are high risk, high return ventures, it's extremely nice that this forum exists under their purview. It must incur some cost to run after all.