[Doubleslash]

I don't think this is the case - both the breakthrough and your statement about where the car manufacturers are. First, current machine learning is flawed. I provides reasonably accurate predictions for simple to medium complex problems with manageable amount of input variables, but requires a lot of data already at the high end of that. For high confidence and high dimensionality it's already uneconomical to even get the data in amount and quality needed. These models fail ultimately with complex scenarios like day to day driving.

As you can see with Waymo and Uber even the simple grid like traffic systems in the US with wide lanes and lots of space to cross are already a problem. Here we haven't even looked at organically grown traffic systems like in Europe or the sheer craziness they call traffic in countries like India. Effectively none of these are self-driving cars as they all come with a driver who regularly has to intervene as the cars prefer to drive around the block rather than doing a left-turn. These are problems they will not be able to solve even with 100x the mileage and cars they have today - scalability is not the problem here. Or rather it's uneconomical to solve it like that - by the time you gathered the necessary amount of training data the traffic systems will likely have changed significantly.

The underlying problem is that machine learning is impossible to debug and deep learning is based on the understanding of the human brain from the early 60s. These fields has advanced significantly since then and we will need both, new algorithms and new hardware, of what will eventually become sophisticated neuromorphic networks that truly mimic the human brain capacity. As it stands today, a human needs only a couple of examples to train, a machine needs millions. This is not only a compute problem but also a sensor problem. Today's sensor don't deliver the data at the necessary fidelity fast enough. We need algorithms that can learn more effectively, not harder.

I wouldn't be surprised if the German car makers are basically where everybody else is, but just waiting until the systems gets to a level where it's economical, truly safe and well accepted to get into mass production. Until then, they are probably fine with customers of Uber / Waymo play guinea pig.

[partingshots]

There is a huge level of information assymetry that currently exists in the self driving industry. It is very much not an equal playing field. You have to understand that certain companies are so far ahead of other ones that they are pretty much competing in distinctly different leagues at this point.

You’re perspective on what the cutting edge of machine learning is shows your understanding of the current technological landscape is lacking. It’s understandable as the developments are happening incredibly quickly and the majority of the research is done privately, and unless you follow the release of academic papers very closely, it can be very easy to fall behind. Nevertheless it’s all happening regardless of whether you’re aware of it or not.