[maaaats]

> it gets the 12 hour forecast right about 40% of the time

Where are these figures from? Your emotions, or something scientifically rigid? If the former, having this discussion is meaningless.

[voyager2]

"chance of precipitation is 80%, less than an inch possible"

How would you determine, in a scientifically rigid manner, the limits on conditions which would validate that forecast as "right?" Or the inverse. What conditions would invalidate it as "not right?"

[scott_s]

In a top-level comment upthread, jacques_chester posted a link to an overview of forecast verification methods: http://www.cawcr.gov.au/projects/verification/