[backpropaganda]

What kind of evidence is going into this analogical reasoning? Do we also extrapolate similarly for other things? We went to the Moon in 1960s. Was Mars a month, or a year, or a decade away? Then we sent robots to Mars. Did we yet send any robots to Alpha Centauri?

Different problems have different difficulties. Solving simple problems quickly doesn't mean we'd also be able to just as easily solve the hard problems. Often the comparably simpler problems have the best reward/effort ratio and thus make quick progress, which doesn't need to be the case for hard problems.

[CydeWeys]

Going to the Moon is a completely different endeavor than making an AI better at a game that it's already quite good at. This is a red herring.

If you had bet against AIs reaching parity with top human players in any previous game, whether it be Checkers, Chess, Go, etc., you'd have lost. I see no reason why StarCraft II should be any different.

We can reconvene in the comments here a year from now and see where AlphaStar is then.