|
|
|
|
|
by lmm
2707 days ago
|
|
In principle yes. If far out of the money options are systemically underpriced then just buying a bunch and holding them should make money on average, by definition. In practice there are a bunch of concerns. You have the gambler's ruin problem: even if your bets are positive expected value, it's very easy to go bankrupt. Since your fund makes all of its money from crises you have a bunch of counterparty risk along a risk of regulatory intervention etc.. Your fund will lose money in most years and it's very difficult for potential investors to know whether you're actually positioned to make money from a crisis or just wasting all their investment. See Keynes' line about sound bankers. Taleb endorses and advises a fund that tries to bet on "black swans"; it's explicitly advertised as a fund that will lose 5% of its value every year in "normal years", but hopefully pay off in exceptional years. You can invest in it if you want. In theory it should work, but no-one will really know until after we have one of those exceptional years. |
|