| For now. In the longer term, gassing up will end up not so much the norm. Has to. (well, technically not until we find ourselves in a state of extraction where the cost exceeds the returns, which may not be all that long) Right now, my commute fits roughly into many EV ranges, but the savings is dubious. I can get 40+ MPG in my second economy car. The first one was an older Corolla. 89, and it got 35 to 40Mpg, if I was careful with it. The newer one is an 01 Honda Accord, and it's roughly the same performance, but I need to be a little bit more careful as that one can actually perform a little. Fine, nice option. In terms of dollars per mile? No contest. Both cars cost 2K, and I'll get 100 - 200K miles out of them with few hassles. I do most of the work, and will get stuck with the odd thing I need to have a shop do, or want to have them do. Gas will have to go up a lot to unbalance that equation. And as for environmental... it's still a mixed bag. Lots of ugly rare earths going into those newer cars, right along with all the production energy use. I predict we will continue to see a decline in new gasoline / diesel car sales as people wait for EVs to gain cost advantages. Used vehicles, perhaps modified some to improve emissions / performance (I do that now mostly myself), will prove increasingly compelling due to the very solid, production proven engineering paying off very nicely right now. It's insane just how long a car can go with a little maintenance and such. We may see cool things like hydrogen. Toyota is working on that big time right now. There already is alcohol, and both have advantages and disadvantages, with alcohol basically being a drop in, pretty friendly, reasonably performant, reasonably cost effective drop in replacement for gas. Same stations, infrastructure, etc... all just works. Many cars can be converted reasonably. There will be a considerable time where people will own cars longer, modify, refurbish, and trade while EV infrastructure continues to ramp up, and competing tech enters, all the costs get sorted. My point here is we are entering a more turbulent time. Many of us will have more options. They may be offered up and see some scale, and in some cases, may just be things people choose to do. I could put my wife on a moderate range EV and she may never actually need anything else. Can always use the other car, or rent, for example. That "anti-salespitch" won't really be seen that way here soon. Picking some options and matching that up to life requirements / needs / wants will seem increasingly ordinary. One thing I do really think will prove useful a bit too late is how GM chose to implement the Volt. The Volt is an actual EV, and works like one for short ranges. Too short, just a bit too short. However, it can recharge on it's internal fuel engine, or plug in, whatever. It's not a hybrid, more like an EV with it's own self-contained recharging option. Volts, converted to use something very friendly, such as alcohol, may well prove out to be seriously great options for people who have a wide, or dynamic range of driving requirements. I kind of want one, while I can get one reasonably. Modify it... We may also see a secondary industry pop up. Take great cars, add on, modify, convert, whatever to make them more receptive to more energy options. In any case, I don't see it as an anti-salespitch. It can be seen that way by those of us fat 'n happy on whatever fuel we are using right now. That's me for sure. I've got my costs waaaaay down. Edit: And though my scenario is seriously cheap, it doesn't have to be. I'm just that way, because I can use the dollars for other things. When EV or other options get in the ballpark, or I can get used vehicles, I may well switch over for a lot of reasons. Won't be buying new though. I will modify, or get used and go from there when it makes sense. New vehicles make so damn little sense when it's just about transport. (driving experiences, status, pleasure all that are not to be dismissed! Just not a priority for me at all right now.) I see it as a little glimpse into the not so distant future. And where there are options, it's gonna get more complicated, but the planet will likely benefit, and people will likely be able to find something that works for them better than gas eventually will not work so well for them. It's just early man. :D |