[evgen]

Google could fail in this same period, but it is unlikely to go through a revenue and valuation growth spurt similar to the one it has had over the past decade. Google is now settled into its middle-age and it is no more likely to come up with another money-printing machine like search advertising than any other company. Facebook has a fraction of Google's revenue and it is possible that they will figure out how to monetize their assets in a manner similar to Google, but it is also possible that they screw up or are blocked by social/legal barriers and are unable to realize the potential that everyone is imagining them to be capable of.

The possibility of Facebook cratering is far greater than the possibility that Google will crater, but the possibility of Facebook reaching Google-like revenues is much more likely than the possibility that Google will double their revenue over a similar time period.