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by erikgaas
2702 days ago
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I was a student in neuroscience, and I got the same impression from people in the field that AGI isn't close. However, arguments were typically from the standpoint of whole brain simulation. We know very little about the brain. And we know computer scientists know less about the brain than the neuroscientists, so how could we possibly be close to replicating that? There would probably be more progress if CSCI and Neuro would communicate more. I don't think the neuro people appreciate the opportunities in the hardware and algorithm space, while the CSCI people don't typically study neuroscience, so AI hugs this interesting intermediate space where it only looks like neuroscience if you squint a lot. Some people think that we need to go all the way to simulating ion channels. I think this is probably silly and we can abstract better than this. In any case you are going to see a lot of disagreements just because of where people want to draw the line for biological fidelity. AI developments have been phenomenal in the past few years. And the economic return makes me expect that this race will continue faster and faster. I don't think human brain project criticisms make this any less of a reality. Even now it is hard to find a well-defined task that can't be performed better by a computer than a human. Humans are really good at dealing with ambiguity though. So a robot might do better driving on well defined roads with nice lane boundaries, but humans are good at dealing with construction, or negotiating between difficult drivers. We have already been able to generalize just about any modality you can think of to be processed by neural nets, and sometimes at the same time. If you squint this feels almost like different regions of the brain. (Vision, hearing, speech) But I have reservations about anthropomorphism since it can cause arguments that keep people from just making something that works. If you think Kurzweil's predictions are a fiction, you are probably right. But I think that's mostly because predictions on those scales are very sensitive to interpretation. For me, I think the future according to my perception of what Kurzweil is saying will probably be way different than reality. But the future of AI will probably have an equivalent impact and be just as surprising as if my perceptions were accurate. |
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I think these are well defined tasks:
1. Go to a bar and convince the best looking man or woman to come home with you for recreational sex.
2. Do this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ic7RNS4Dfo while being crushingly cute.
3. Negotiate Brexit.