[existencebox]

To be precise. I do not in any way believe in perfectly intelligent or omniscient markets. I do believe that large professional financial entities have mastered short-term trading to force things such as margin calls and other behaviors that an individual such as myself has no real tools against. This is what I mean when I say "the house wins" not that the market is in any way always correct. I assert that in any situation where an individual could make a bet, they are inherently competing in an uphill information-and-tool-asymmetry battle against far better equipped entities.

This explanation should be very familiar to those who have frequented groups like bogleheads that drink the indexing koolaid. (I admittedly do, as one could probably tell from the above)