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by reinhardt1053
2709 days ago
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In the context of political forecasting, imagine that you are a defence chief who is faced with an unquantifiable external threat, as the US was by Russia during the Cold War. You can predict that this enemy is a very great threat, or you can say that it isn’t much of a threat, but the outcomes are asymmetric. If you say that the threat is a grave one, and strengthen your defences accordingly, then if the enemy attacks, you were clearly right to take the threat seriously. If the enemy doesn’t attack, you were still right, because you can say that the enemy only didn’t attack because of the action you took. On the other hand, if you dismiss the threat as insignificant, and the enemy attacks, then at best your career comes to a sudden and unpleasant end. So therefore, it is always right to over-emphasise the threats, and if you turn out to be wrong, you were wrong for the right reason.[1] [1] https://wiseinvestment.co.uk/news/antiques-roadshow-tony-yar... |
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if the audience is not receptive to the concept of opportunity cost, then yes. Unfortunately, a majority of people over-estimate the need for security and thus, allow themselves to be fooled into believing that this over-emphasis, no matter the cost, is justified.
Just look at the TSA!