[simonh]

It's not about which is worse either though. The implicit calculation is: If I get caught, will the punishment deter me.

But (approximately) nobody commits a crime on the assumption they will get caught, so it pretty much doesn't matter what the punishment is. The way to move the needle is to change the assumption about getting caught. The closer that tends towards guaranteed, the less chance people will even make above calculation in the first place.

[mikeash]

Yes, exactly. And my thinking for travel is much the same. I’m not traveling on the assumption that I will be falsely convicted of a crime while I’m there. The way to move the needle on my decision to travel is to change the assumption about being falsely convicted, not what will happen to me if I am. Thus, a man already in prison for years suddenly being sentenced to death doesn’t change my travel plans at all.