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by aphextron 2725 days ago
>Fossil fuel driven flight is not viable in a sustainable future. We need to understand this.

But it's the reality. Electrification of individual ground transportation, and the phasing out of gasoline cars, is absolutely inevitable over the next 20 years. But jet fuel isn't going anywhere for a long, long time. It's just a matter of physics. It's foreseeable to have small scale electrified commuter aircraft shuttling people within 400 miles. But any type of long haul flight will be done with turbine engines burning kerosene. Even with a 10x increase in energy density for LiPo batteries, we still wouldn't be there.

1 comments

I don't disagree with anything you've said, but not having a viable alternative to fossil fuel driven flight right now doesn't justify accelerating the damage it's doing by leaning further into it.
Aviation is small fish though. REALLY small fish. This type of aviation even more so. It accounts for only 1-2% of anthropomorphic CO2eq production. Benefits outweigh the bad. I'm not aware of climate scientists actually caring about supersonic travel.

I'm kinda surprised to see this kind of hostility. Same thing happens when nuclear is suggested even though the IPCC HIGHLY advocates its use. It is all about relative impact. Part of the problem with resolving climate change is that even the people who acknowledge it fight among themselves and don't push for both current technologies (which includes nuclear) and research for new technologies (fusion, batteries, and better solar/hydro/wind). We need to just listen to what the experts say, not what you read in some blog post or HN comment.

Aviation is currently a small fish because it's currently available to such small part of the population on a regular basis. For those that take part of it it's a major part of their footprint. Scaling it up to more people is very unsustainable. Therefore fossil fuel aviation is unsustainable in a world where more and more people get richer.

> Same thing happens when nuclear is suggested

It's not the "same thing". Nuclear has some sustainability benefits. Bringing back commercial hypersonic air travel seems to have no such benefits.

If we cut carbon out of everything else, the price of oil will drop, and aviation will be able to greatly expand.

Air travel is low now only because it's expensive. People world gladly take many, many more flights if they were cheaper.

Of course if we taxed carbon this problem would go away, and taxing international flights would probably be easier than a general carbon tax, if flights were all that was left.

Internet experts, politicians, bureaucrats and intellectuals can argue until the end of time about which CO2-emitting products and services deserve to, or should, exist.

Just the same way the expertise of the most-brilliant central planners in the USSR and elsewhere allocated resources.

It doesn't work. There's a better way which is also consistent with democracy and individual choice. But people don't like the sound of it.

> There's a better way

You mean putting a price tag on emissions I assume?

Yes of course. Just tax carbon (and use the proceeds to give a flat rebate to everyone).
I’m not sure why you’re downvoted... this is 100% the best way to incentivize reduction in carbon emissions. And just keep upping the tax gradually as needed.
Initial post wasn’t meant to be hostile at all and I’m still unsure of whether or not supersonic travel is a net positive or negative.

My issue was with the parent comment essentially suggesting that you can justify boosting emissions from flight travel because we still rely on fossil fuels, so might as well double down. Nobody was suggesting that we immediately cease all flight travel. I’m open to the possibility that supersonic travel is a net positive, but the argument needs to be around what we’re getting in return for the emissions and why that’s worth it.

>We need to just listen to what the experts say

People saying supersonic travel is a step in the wrong direction are listening to experts who agree that our use of fossil fuels is a threat to humanity and the environment. And what about when experts disagree? There has to be some level of independent thought to parse and apply what experts are putting forward.

> I'm not aware of climate scientists actually caring about supersonic travel.

Because there isn't any. None. Zero. Why would you be aware of people worrying about something that currently doesn't exist?

> Why would you be aware of people worrying about something that currently doesn't exist?

I'm not sure how to break this to you, but scientists are generally aware about up and coming technologies. And we do think about potential future impact.

So let me rephrase

>>I'm not aware of climate scientists actually caring about potential future implementations of supersonic travel.

I'm not sure how to break this to you, but supersonic flight isn't an up and coming technology.

It's decades old, and it's failed for economic reasons.

Climate scientists worrying about the impacts of supersonic flight would be like Ornithologists looking to spot dinosaurs in the wild.

That’s because they’re more aware of the history of commercial supersonic transport than the investors at Boom, and therefore have no reason to worry.
Haters can't make up their minds...
By that standard you shouldnt be using the internet. The “damage” is questionable to say the least. There is a whole group of poor people who need access to fossil fuels to survive, but are you going to stop them from getting it in the mame of climate change? Are you goin to stop buying computers and other products build and distributed using the internatioal supply change? If not why expect others to do what you dont?
I don't understand this logic. How does one action with unfortunate side effects excuse another?

Sure perhaps we shouldn't be using the internet. Or perhaps we should do a lot more to make sure that the energy used for powering the internet is sustainable.

But our deficiency in that area doesn't make this activity any better.

Who are you to decide what is ok and what is not? How do you know that building a supersonic jet doesent open up for other technologies or methods that wil improve effectiveness of fuel consumtion? I dont understand with what logic you get to decide that your consumption is ok but other peoples use isnt.