[doovd]

> This is an extremely flawed initial assumption. There is no requirement for chance to be centered around zero. Consider rolling a dice: sometimes you'll get more than the mean, sometimes less, but you'll never roll a negative number. You can certainly win on chance in the long run, that's the foundation of casinos and insurance companies. It's hard to imagine a scenario where trial and error can possibly lead to knowledge regressing.

Casinos and Insurance companies don't win on "chance". There is an expected value of the events that are in consideration here, and these firms price their services such that their return is higher than the expected value...very little down to chance. It's as if we played a die roll game where I paid you the value on the dice each time you rolled it and you paid me >3.5 units per roll to take your turn. That's the house edge.