[kolikotime]

Of course they didn't orchestrate it, but without Sarkozy's calls for an air intervention,which America and Britain then went along with, the war likely would have fizzled or resolved in a way in which there wouldn't be a massive power vacuum. Along with Iraq it stands as one of this century's greatest follies as it resulted in Libya having very factionalized governance, and furthermore then led towards arms being spread across the Sahel, which led towards trouble in Mali and in Northern Nigeria the rise of Boko Haram.

Furthermore it backfired on the EU as Gaddafi was instrumental towards regulating migratory flows, even during the protests and the civil war.

[jnurmine]

A power vacuum was certainly created as a result of the Gaddaffi regime collapse, yes.

But Boko Haram started its big rise already ca.1-2 years before the protests in Libya even begun, therefore the Libya situation did not directly create the rise of Boko Haram.

Also, it is not clear if things would have fizzled out without an intervention. The Syria war happened in parallel, and whoever was left to rule Libya (in whole or in parts) would have had to face the Battar Brigade, and then eventually the ISIL in Libya. Given that those actors obviously received clandestine backing (money, equipment, training) from "somewhere", thus greatly increasing their strength against any more organic movement(s), and given highly possible political reluctance to arm/support the opposite side, it is conceivable that the entire Libya could have eventually become an ISIL stronghold.

The whole Arab Spring was strategically bad news for the EU, including France. They had nothing to gain from orchestrating such a thing. But without any intervention (read: attempts to control) the Libya situation could have turned into something much worse, given that the likes of AQIM existed already in the neighbourhood before the Libya protests started, and this can explain the eagerness to try to clean up the mess as quickly as possible.