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by shookness 2738 days ago
Fracking companies are facing a ticking time-bomb of debt:

http://www.artberman.com/wp-content/uploads/HGS-11-SEPT-2017...

http://www.artberman.com/alternative-facts-about-opec-u-s-sh...

1 comments

Along with the US national government. About $17 trillion not owed to itself. Added 0.7 trillion in 2017.

Cost to finance $17T per year at various interest rates (today's average rate on the US debt is about 2%):

rate, cost($B), % of 2017 Fed income

2%, 340, 15%

3%, 510, 22%

5%, 850, 37%

8%, 1360, 59%

10%, 1700, 74%

As you can see by this chart (sorry about the formatting), the Fed has to keep interest rates low or the US will have little choice but to default on the debt.

I think a lot of people who ponder such things have concluded that the Fed will keep the interest rates low and the US will/are fudge/fudging the inflation numbers so that the Fed can still claim they are hitting their 2% target even though asset prices go through the roof. Who knows what the end game on such a plan will be, but some form of hyperinflation is not out of the question. All those people who are too scared of losing value on investments and just parking their savings in cash, will be very disappointed and confused if that happens.

But how much of the debt is paid at the current interest rate?

Isn't there a bunch of 10 or 30 year treasuries that were issued years ago will be paid out at their historical rates?

Does this include state and muni debt? I imagine not.
US state & muni debt is comparatively mild versus the federal debt. About $1.2 trillion in state debt, versus roughly $1.9 trillion in tax revenue (the US Govt is at $21/$22 trillion in debt and ~$3.6 trillion in tax revenue).

Muni / local debt is about $1.8 trillion, with around $2 trillion in tax revenue.

The US Government's ratio of tax revenue to debt to be maintained, is about 10x worse than the states. States would have to boost their debt from $1.2t to $12t to match it.

US state and muni debt is also not particularly increasing. There hasn't been a jump in state debt since the great recession. Many of the states have to keep balanced budgets by law, or close to that. Mostly the only time they plunge into the red, is when their budgets explode for a few years during / after a recession (then they go back to trying to balance their budgets, and usually don't do a good job of paying down the recently acquired debt). States obviously don't have the luxury of doing a stealth tax on income & wealth via the currency to meet their funding needs.

Do your figures include unfunded retirement debt? That is a number that is hard to find and/or calculate. The Fed has relatively small amounts of this debt (if you don't count social security, laugh/cry). The states and munis, much more.
No, thus the words "US national government", but those will be a problem also when you include their retirement debt obligations.
Where are you reading about this? Who computes US inflation and how do they do it?