[bildung]

>I really don't understand all the cynicism around this. It's a prototype of a bold idea, [...]

Well, because it isn't. Tunnel boring is an established industry, it's just a new topic on HN, and apparently for Musk. People don't call him out for being bold, they are calling him out for doing bad and falling over his own hubris.

[stcredzero]

Well, because it isn't. Tunnel boring is an established industry

Yes, but Elon's stock and trade has become:

    1) look at an established industry
    2) do a 1st principles analysis of how inexpensive the product could be
    3) analyze where the difference comes from
    4) $$$

This works especially well with overlooked industries where government regulation has thrown up barriers and established players have little competition. That is bold. Following scientific principles to the truth and profiting from it is bold, flat out.

It's more admirable than imitation of previous successes, at any rate.

[julianozen]

Ill add to this. If you listen to his interview with Kara Swisher on recode, he has a pretty compelling case on what he thinks the established industry is overlooking. According to him, the technology used for tunneling is very outdated. The Diesel engines could be replaced by something far more powerful without hitting thermal limits reducing drill time. Current technology also fills the tunnel with exhaust that needs to be pumped out with oxygen

It’s not hard to see how trying something high powered and electric/lithium-ion based might change the cost/benefits of tunneling, and Elon/Tesla also seems like it might have a uniquely special knowledge of electric motors to succeed

I see no reason why this isn’t worth the experiment.

[corodra]

Yea, that argument makes perfect sense, if you totally ignore that the speed of tunneling isn't dictated by the drill but by installing the support structures as you tunnel. The actual tunneling aspect is not the bottleneck (unless you're doing certain mountain ranges). The bottleneck is making sure what you just drilled doesn't immediately collapse on you. Along with evacuating the material out of the way. That's the reason tunneling takes so long. You have to support the new section of hole so it does't collapse due to pressure or a damn random earthquake happens to hit. To do that too, you need to properly get rid of the material out of your way so the structure is stabilized. The drills normally (80%-90% of the time) outpace the support structure building process already. You can only go so far until you have to wait for them to catch up.

Do I agree that electricity would potentially help? Yes. Mostly for exhaust. As long as you can equal out the torque as well. Motors that large don't always have the same amount of torque as their fuel counter parts. But massive batteries overheat as well and are an explosive risks. Diesel at least needs to be well aerated to pose as an extreme fire risk. Running a large battery for that long would be an issue. You still have the heat, but at least the exhaust problems are potentially not there. Even though large lithium batteries still produce fumes when run hot. But I'm not sure as to what ppm until those fumes are dangerous/equal to carbon monoxide.

[stcredzero]

The bottleneck is making sure what you just drilled doesn't immediately collapse on you. Along with evacuating the material out of the way. That's the reason tunneling takes so long.

From what I've read, Boring Company is very aware of this. Give me a 1st principles analysis for why those things can't be done cheaper and faster?

[gamblor956]

Elon must be pretty out-of-date on his tunneling research since most of the tunneling machines in use these days are electrical, powered directly from the local grid. (Think about it--if you're running a combustible engine in a confined space the last thing you would do is flood the area with pure oxygen.)

The thermal limits in boring isn't related to the energy source--it's related to the bore head warming up from the friction of boring. This problem is addressed by cooling the bore head with water.

[gamblor956]

Elon's only succeeded with this with SpaceX, and someone else actually runs that company.

Teslas are still more expensive than other EVs, and selling them at the same costs as their competitors would, in Elon's own words, kill the company.

Boring Co and the tunnel reveal yesterday demonstrate that Elon has not done a 1st principles analysis of how inexpensive a product could be, and indeed that Elon isn't even sure what the product is.

[JoeAltmaier]

Be fair; every startup expects to pivot the product before they're done. Elon is about the technology?

[spectrum1234]

lol

[soperj]

> Tunnel boring is an established industry

No more so than cars, and rockets.

[gamblor956]

Tunnel boring has been around for longer than cars have, advanced mechanical tunnel borers predate Silicon Valley, so yes, it's an established industry that has seen continuous, revolutionary innovation. That HN and SV are unfamiliar with the industry in no way changes that fact.

[darawk]

So, you then are staking your claim that Elon Musk has invested 8 figures of his own money in an area that he has no hope of improving upon the state of the art? And you are willing to predict right now that he has made no such substantial improvements to tunneling technology?

[goalieca]

The industry is not stagnant. Riskier and more complicated tunnels are being built all the time. The craziest ones go under water to connect land masses.

[gamblor956]

No, because Elon hasn't invested his own money into this. He's investing money loaned to him by the bank against his SpaceX and Tesla stock.

I can't predict that he has not made any substantial or meaningful improvements to tunneling technology to date because (a) that's not a prediction, it's a statement of current affairs, and (b) it's already quite clear that he hasn't--and based on the Hawthorne tunnel, it appears that (c) Elon has actually regressed from current tunneling technology.

But yes, I am willing to predict that Boring Co will never make meaningful improvements to tunneling technology. Everything they've already suggested as innovative has already been done by existing players. BoringCo's road map for innovation for the next 10 years is literally them just playing catch up to everyone else.

[darawk]

> No, because Elon hasn't invested his own money into this. He's investing money loaned to him by the bank against his SpaceX and Tesla stock.

Those two things are the same thing. A loan against a personal asset is the same thing as your own money.

[satiani]

Cars are an established industry too...

[corodra]

So far, you've said it best as to what's wrong with him.

SpaceX is just using McDonnell Douglas's DCX prototype tech to go into space. Difference between now and then, the gov is throwing money at the development.

Tesla, nothing new there. Electric cars are old. Like, real old.

The Boring Company, tunnels, transit, moving cars on a skid. Old.

Hyperloop, was theorized in the early 1900s. Plans and prototypes in the 70s and on ward, but lacked funding to move these projects forward.

Let's not forget that little publicity stunt with the cave sub for those kids. Then calls the guy leading the actual rescue a pedo because the guy told him not to use the situation as a publicity stunt.

And that little "I'm taking tesla private" and mentions the price. Never happened. There's a reason why that shit is illegal. "The good old days" of the stock market, pre 1930s was filled with that shit. Then he says the SEC are assholes because he broke the law with some scandalous manipulation that historically was always done by greedy assholes. It's interesting how people don't understand how dangerous pump and dumps can be.

If he had the humility to just say "Hey, I'm taking old ideas I think are good and I'm going to try to make it better with bumps in the road." There wouldn't be as much hate. Not over promising, plus getting angry at other people that point out that he's missed the mark.

[hi5eyes]

the battery swapping/zev credit scam they pulled is what soured me with elon. his intentions are somewhat admirable but comes off as an egomaniac with the hype/cult like following. everyone esp on hn can appreciate someone taking a different approach to problems and he/tesla undoubtedly sped up the ev shift but there's so many shady practices (accounting and management the most severe) surrounding the work