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If AGI is possible, it already happened. If even AI experts put it a 100-1000 years out, where some human monkeys banging on digital typewriters could eventually create it, then, in the vastness of space, time, military contracts, alien intelligences, and random Boltzmann brains, it must have been reality multiple times already. If AGI is impossible, it will never happen. We already know that perfectly intelligent AGI's are not physically possible: Per DeepMind's foundational theoretical framework, optimal compression is non-computable, and besides that, it is not possible for an inference machine to know all of its universe (unless it is bigger than the universe by at least 1 bit, AKA it is the universe). Remains being more intelligent than all of humanity. To accomplish that, by Shannon's own estimates, there is currently not enough information available in datasets and the internet. Chinese efforts to artificially increase the intelligence of babies is still in its infancy too (the substrate of AGI is irrelevant for computationalism, unless it absolutely needs to run on the IBM 5100). So until that time travels, we will have to make due with being smarter than/indistinguishable from a human on all economic tasks. We're already there for some subset of humanity, you may even be a part of that subset, if you believed this post was written by a human. |