[nostrademons]

Haven't run the analysis myself (yet - it's awfully tempting), but it seems like you could get rough numbers of this by computing the volume of on-chain transactions (excluding transactions to known exchange wallets) vs. the volume on all exchanges. The idea is that if you're just trading crypto for price increases, it's much more convenient to do this on an exchange where you receive either another cryptocurrency or fiat, while if you're exchanging it for goods & services, there's really no way to do that other than a wallet app. On-chain transactions would also capture the OTC market (where traders make direct arrangements to transact with each other), but you could perhaps avoid that by filtering out large transactions.

Actually, it's pretty easy to run these numbers for a rough ballpark. About $2.1B of Ethereum (22.7M ETH @ $94) was traded across all exchanges in the last 24h. 3 ETH is mined every 10sec or so, so that's about 26K from mining, probably not a large contributor. I don't have good numbers for how much ETH is traded per day, but it's 5.7 TPS, so about 490K on-chain transactions per day. A quick glance at recent transactions shows maybe an average of 0.2-0.3 ETH per transactions (heavily skewed - the vast majority are for 0.01 ETH, and then maybe 1 out of 50 will be a 10 ETH transaction), so that's about 100K ETH/day. The figure of roughly 99% unbridled speculation and 1% actual technology sounds about right.