[_imba_]

He gets predictions more than most. You should go read that book. There are many chapters on the incorrect weight people add to the outcome of correct predictions (or incorrect predictions, if that is what suits their agenda).

[pmart123]

For me, it'a less about the accuracy of his predictions, and more about his intellectual smugness rubbing me the wrong way. He has no problem with the hypocrisy of attacking Nate Silver over some supposed weaknesses in his election prediction model, but does not seem to care about the inaccuracies of his own public predictions.

Nate Silver took political polls and hunches, which were far less accurate, and came up with something significantly better. Even in 2016, Fivethirteight's model showed the odds of Trump winning were not that remote versus major media outlets "guessing" the race was all but over.

Election prediction models will always be inherently unstable in my mind. It's pretty much impossible to predict the when, if, how, who of an Anthony Weiner type scandal.