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>If this were the case, Weight Watchers (which is at its core a calorie limiting system) should have a near 100% success rate. It doesn't. A casual perusal of Google shows closer to a 50% success rate for a 5% body weight change.

First off - that's an astonishing success rate against a backdrop of an article saying, literally, surgery is the only reliable option.

Second off - You're assuming 100% compliance. I know people with personal trainers who are gaining weight because they don't stick to the program. I halfheartedly went through a weightlifting routine for years and got nowhere because I never really stuck to the program. 100% compliance in the field of weight loss is just not going to happen.