Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by JamesBarney 2745 days ago
> If somebody were to give me a hundred thousand dollars to invest, I am quite certain I could live comfortably for the rest of my life

This shows a pretty big disconnect. And is something no one in their 30s+ would say.

The common rule of thumb is you can live off of an investment at 4% indefinitely(assuming 6% return and 2% inflation). This gives you $4,000 a year. Crappy insurance: $4,200 a year. Crappy 300 sq ft efficiency in cheaper town: $5,400 a year. Cost of owning a car: $5,000 a year(you could skip this expense, but you'll be spending most of it in increased cost of living in area with great public transit. You could also bike but not everyone's knees last forever)

And this doesn't include food/entertainment/travel/internet/phone/medical bills etc.

4 comments

> This shows a pretty big disconnect.

Yes it does. That was my point.

For starters, you're assuming I'd want to live off the investment, instead of continuing to work.

Regardless, I shouldn't have mentioned the arbitrary figure of $100K, which has made it so much easier for people to ignore my point, that many people are comfortable with much less than $10M.

You're presuming you can continue to work.

$10M means you don't have to work, even when you can't.

I agree, that is an assumption built into my belief, and possibly a foolish one.

I would still maintain that it is possible to live on much less than $10M, although some may not enjoy the change in lifestyle.

It is possible to live on $0 income/saving indefinitely, assuming you live in a developed country with a welfare system (I wouldn't personally want to).
Not really that's about the level where you don't have to think to much at say the £1,000,000 - yes I would not really have to work - but buying a house would easily take 50% - 70% of that.

And I could spend 10% of the 1 million on just maxing out my unused pension allowance for the last three years, and probably I should do the same for my sisters.

> For starters, you're assuming I'd want to live off the investment, instead of continuing to work.

Okay, fine. You mentioned that you're a student, so I'll assume that means you're 22: if you're a man, that means you have another 55 years. That $100,000 thus works out to an extra $1,818/year for the rest of your life, which is roughly a month's rent or a dozen or two really good meals a year. Is that a nice supplement to your wealth? Sure. Is it enough to make your life significantly better? No, not really.

Ah, but perhaps you're investing it, too. Let's say that you get 6% a year (optimistic), and withdraw 1/55th of the principal + interest each year. So this year you'll get $1,927, next year you'll get $2,006 &c. Is it nice to have that extra money? Sure! Is it going to be life-altering? No, not really.

This depends where in the world you're thinking of living. $4,000/year goes a lot further in the developing world.
Unsurprisingly, very few seem to want to go there (otherwise financial independance would be easily achievable for lots of people).
>...The common rule of thumb is you can live off of an investment at 4% indefinitely

Your general point is right, but the situation is even worse than you say since you are misinterpreting the 4% rule. It isn’t that you can live “ indefinitely” - it is that using historical returns, you could live about 30 years taking 4% (allowing for increases due to inflation) off an investment before it is zero. People seem to think that taking 4% means you won’t have to touch your capital - that isn’t the case.

>...What we now call the 4% rule comes out of research by financial planner William Bengen in the early 1990s. Essentially, Bengen tested a variety of withdrawal rates on several different allocations of stocks and bonds using inflation data and investment returns going back to 1926. After crunching the numbers, he concluded: "Assuming a minimum requirement of 30 years of portfolio longevity, a first-year withdrawal of 4%, followed by inflation-adjusted withdrawals in subsequent years, should be safe.”

https://money.cnn.com/2018/02/07/retirement/4-percent-rule/i...

This seems like a hidden assumption.

Why would you not work doing whatever it is you do as an avocation, or if you like, a hobby or dream job? If it's what you love and what fascinates you, why would that not lead to income across your whole life? Granted, it'd take years to get to the point where it's sustainable, but surely there is tangible value in this?

I do not understand a mindset of 'My only purpose is to amass a pile of wealth so large that I don't spend any of it or do anything else ever, merely use the mechanisms of finance to subsist unproductively off the leakage from my giant pile of wealth, literally forever'.

How is this plan in any way good, ethical or beneficial to either the person or the society they're in? You're going to die having made no use of the hoard you seized, despite having taken it from others who need wealth of their own to survive. Rethink these assumptions.

> I do not understand a mindset of 'My only purpose is to amass a pile of wealth so large that I don't spend any of it or do anything else ever, merely use the mechanisms of finance to subsist unproductively off the leakage from my giant pile of wealth, literally forever'.

> You're going to die having made no use of the hoard you seized, despite having taken it from others who need wealth of their own to survive. Rethink these assumptions.

I would encourage you to rethink your assumptions. What you wrote goes completely against how economics actually works.

You are not "seizing" a hoard, and definitely not taking it from others. Unless you are literally a thief, that's just not how things work - you are making it seem like the economy is zero-sum, whereas it absolutely is not.

Also, having a pile of wealth that you don't spend is something that no one actually does - almost everyone invests their money, which means it is put to good use, as an investment - the wealth that someone created out of thin air, is turned into the building blocks for new people to create their own wealth.

I highly recommend you read a little about economics, it's one of the most rewarding and eye-opening things I've ever studied (only as an amateur, I'm not a professional economist or anything.)

> I highly recommend you read a little about economics

Can you suggest some resources?

It depends how far into economics you want to get (and remember, I am not at all an economist, just an interested layperson).

A good book for getting started, IMO, is Charles Wheelan's "Naked Economics".

The first thing that I read was "Basic Economics" by Thomas Sowell, which I liked a lot and highly recommend - however, keep in mind that Thomas Sowell is very capitalist/right leaning, and the book is quite "biased".

A great textbook, if you really want to get further into economics, is Greg Mankiw's Principles of Economics (almost all undergrad economics textbooks are called "Principles of Economics", for some reason, so you have to search by author.) That's definitely the place to go if you want to have a more sophisticated understanding of economics than you'll just get by reading books.

Thanks! I'll start here.
Rationalization.
There's no need for a dichotomy between "meaningful poorly-paid work" and "unethical pointless well-paid work." It's perfectly possible to work at a nonprofit that is "beneficial to society" while simultaneously optimizing your own personal financial position.
Can't speak for the OP, but saying you are able to live without working is no the same as saying that you won't work. When discussing financial security and financial worries, being able to survive and fulfill all your obligations until your death without holding a job is the point where you are "free" from having to worry about finances. It doesn't mean you won't work, and many of us would continue to have a day job in such a case, it just means that we wouldn't have to worry about how to take care of our family if we got fired.