[msla]

I'm curious about what, exactly, the people who take this seriously think they're preparing for.

In a scenario severe enough you're trying to make your own antibiotics, you can assume hospitals aren't functioning, which means civil society is gone.

You can't assume the government is gone, BTW: Every power vacuum will get filled, one way or the other, and there are plenty of unrecognized governments which are as governmental as they need to be to enforce their idea of order in a defined region.

Therefore... you, the prepper who was responsible enough to squirrel away tools and knowledge and supplies, are a target. If the government is trying to rebuild, it's going to be seizing supplies and, possibly, conscripting anyone capable of using those supplies who didn't have the good sense to leave when the getting was good. If the government isn't trying to rebuild... well, since when have gangs not looted anyone with stuff worth having?

It comes down to a survivalist fantasy, which amounts to one person, one family, one karass, against the world. A small, intimate group, as opposed to the granfalloon with guns which is called a military. Well... when a small group goes up against a big group, the small group is almost always fated to lose.

"Stable ownership is the gift of social law, and is given late in the progress of society." --Thomas Jefferson to Isaac McPherson, 1813. ME 13:333

[jcims]

What about cases like Katrina and Puerto Rico, where there are no local services but there are zero threats to the sovereignty of the federal government?

You don't need to survive Mad Max style for decades, you just need to make it a month or two until roads are open and power is back on. In this case having a stash of antibiotics could mean the difference between life and death for someone that's injured, and as the article points out there's no real good reason to grow your own when you can buy serviceable alternatives online.

[nuguy]

Exactly. Living your life with zero buffer against fluctuations in the availability of life-critical materials is just as stupid as people who are prepping for zombie invasions. One guy thinks nothing will ever happen and the other thinks society is a transient entity. They are both fantasies. If you aren’t ready for earthquakes, fires, financial disasters and etc then you have a short attention span or you’re just lazy.

Besides all this, consolidation and integration of life-support is the way of the future. If you look at society as one big system, it makes a lot of sense to have lots of redundant units rather than all units depending on one central resource. Sole and batteries for example harden the whole country against equipment failure, terror attack, negligence and natural disasters. With a single power plant any instance of one of those things could bring down huge numbers of houses. Technology is making it possible to produce some of the things you need in home, so there is a funny convergence of preppers and technologists.

[mattmanser]

No idea why you've been d/ved, as you say, there's so many potential, but low risk, scenarios. Even in America and the EU we've all got a 0.5%, maybe 0.1% every year that something could go very wrong. Most likely is that it doesn't spiral, like the 2008 financial crisis, but there was a real, but small, chance that could have gone much worse.

His comment not only is ignoring real-life examples that have happened within his life time (Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Venezula, Katrina, Puerto Rico, etc.), he's also postulating that these new governmental structures would magically spring up over night, rather than taking years or even decades to emerge.

I'm no prepper, but I do feel that I am knowingly taking a risk, albeit a very small one, by not being one. If I had a family to care for, I would definitely be more prepared with 3 months food and some emergency medical supplies beyond a first aid kit. It's a small enough risk that it will probably not happen for my generation or my country, but it does happen.

I also often don't buy insurance for things I think aren't worth it, but it's still a deliberate choice rather than sleep walking into it.

It's almost on the same risk percentage as Home Insurance, so if you're insuring your home, why aren't you 'spending' a little time each year prepping? Just because it's socially unacceptable, but home insurance is regarded as socially acceptable?

[barrow-rider]

Doesn't even have to be something destructive like Iraq or Puerto Rico, Argentina comes to mind: serious economic collapse, maybe not Venezula-style, but enough that it disrupted things heavily.

I agree with the parent -- it's just insurance, and is a cost-benefit trade-off that needs to be evaluated in a similar fashion as flood insurance or the like.

There are a lot of what I'd call "psychological" or perception-based factors for doing things like hoarding guns and food, and it's easy to go overboard, but they're not fundamentally poor choices.

[TheSpiceIsLife]

This is a great point. I recently had a small burn which ended up infected with golden staph.

If that infection had a happened and I couldn't get antibiotics, clean water, food, shelter, etc. for a month things could have gone quite the way south.

[Udik]

For those cases the only thing you need to stash is money- maybe some gold if you think money might become worthless. Because just leaving the place for somewhere else is a vastly better option than any survivalist fantasy.

[ahje]

I live in the countryside. During winters (starting about this time of the year), the roads here are barely usable under normal conditions. We occasionally end up not being able to get to the store for two or three days due to heavy snowfall. We also have occasional power outages caused by heavy snowfall.

I'd say it's only a matter of time before we're hit by a severe blizzard and we need to manage on our own for a week or two. We do have antibiotics and other basic medical supplies at home, for such occasions. We also keep enough food and firewood for at least two weeks, sometimes more.

As for making one's own antibiotics, one of the most commonly repeated survivalist mantras is that one should always have and maintain a skill that will be useful in order to rebuild, in case society collapses. That way, if we do end up with zombies roaming the streets, Illuminati death squads chasing survivors, and a runaway AI trying to exterminate humanity, you will have something to offer the groups trying to rebuild.

Personally, I know how to make booze. My neighbors do, indeed, seem to appreciate that skill. :D

[noonespecial]

The funniest ones for me are the ones who focus obsessively on some things while missing glaringly obvious others: The guy with 2 AR15's, a water reclamation system and 7 years of macaroni in his basement but is so out of shape he can't run up a flight of stairs.

Want to really prepare for TEOTWAWKI? Try jogging.

[mac01021]

One of the two AR15s is for propulsion.

[FlyMoreRockets]

Even better, try gardening. Food and exercise at the same time!

[pjc50]

Sadly it's easily possible to get into situations where the hospitals and society are "functioning", but civil society has decided not to give you any medicine. It seems to be an occasional problem in the US, but also happened during e.g. the Greek financial crisis.

Antibiotics are one thing, but I know several people who are dependent on insulin, and more who are dependent on more complex cutting-edge medication. This is why we need to keep the supply lines open, civil society civil, and international trade operating.

The fact that the UK is now seemingly going into "state prepper" mode for an avoidable self-inflicted disaster is starting to frighten me. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/brexit-no-deal-ins...

[ada1981]

“it's easily possible to get into situations where the hospitals and society are "functioning", but civil society has decided not to give you any medicine.”

We are currently in such a situation in the United States.

[imhoguy]

> In a scenario severe enough you're trying to make your own antibiotics, you can assume hospitals aren't functioning, which means civil society is gone.

The problem of the society is that more and more people count on "How to..." lookup on the Internet and can hardly imagine empty pharmacy or shop shelves.

I worry that the civil society is too much dependent on centralized services prone to interruption: specialized knowledge, production lines, banks, methods of payment, medical drugs, mobile networks, electricity, drinking water and petrol supply, government, ISPs, online services.

> It comes down to a survivalist fantasy, which amounts to one person, one family, one karass, against the world.

No, it is to help a community around you to survive a crisis. Local or global - that doesn't matter. I think the take away from all prep efforts is preserving basic tools, knowledge and skills in the society. In case of crisis, the prepared community can quickly rebuild basic services and sustain itself before a help arrives. Also it can share or barter with other communities.

[agumonkey]

I wonder if these should be diffused in secondary education.

[arkh]

http://www.shtfplan.com/emergency-preparedness/a-survival-q-...

Conclusion: trust only your family.

[mirimir]

> You can't assume the government is gone, BTW ...

Right. It'll be some mix of police, ex-military and professional criminals.

Edit: Reminds me of Harlan Ellison's A Boy and His Dog. The film adaptation was OK too.

[senectus1]

People have been playing too much Fallout.

[setquk]

I think it’s more that people don’t exercise their survival instinct much these days as everything mostly just works. The biggest risk is not having toilet paper for the average person.

Thus some people construct scenarios to fill the hole.

For me, watching world war Z was stressful enough.

[stale]

There's no such thing as too much Fallout :D

[senectus1]

my son would agree....