[akiselev]

> But it does mean that sometime right about now, even if humans did not exist, we'd expect to still see temperatures rapidly rising.

Except that we know that changes in average temperature on Earth were, before the industrial revolution, almost entirely (>>90% correlation) due to cycles in solar insolation [1]. Now, that insolation accounts for less than half of the rising temperatures, meaning the energy is getting trapped in the atmosphere more and more.

It's nearly impossible to measure insolation from millions or billions of years ago like this paper did for 1600s onwards but all other related indicators, including those ice cores, are screaming that this is unprecedented. It wasn't until humanity came into the picture that indicators for solar insolation and temperature change began to diverge.

[1] https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/95GL0309...