[doombolt]

Oil and gas are the only reliable Russian exports.

Economic pressure on Russia leads to increase of importance of oil and gas sector as other sectors plunge. This leads to more capacity, more offering. Which leads to price correction, even more offering as prices fall and have to be made for. Which in total leads to massive use of cheap gas.

If there was someone committed to decrease in fossil fuel usage they will be making sure that Russia turns into Norway economically and politically. Meaning much fewer extraction of much more expensive fuels and more effort to not knock the ecology in the process.

[credit_guy]

> Oil and gas are the only reliable Russian exports.

Just to corroborate this, I found this interesting website [1].

"The top exports of Russia are Crude Petroleum ($75.7B), Refined Petroleum ($43.1B), Petroleum Gas ($16B), Coal Briquettes ($10.4B) and Raw Aluminium ($6.08B)"

[1] https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/rus/

[doombolt]

It is also an eye-opener that food is so cheap these days you can make more from selling Diamonds mined at 2-3 locations than from selling Wheat grown all over the map.

[ben_w]

What happens when those exports stop being reliable, if and when renewables get cheap enough that electrolysing hydrogen from water is still cheaper than mining methane from Siberia despite the inefficiency of the former?

[trhway]

>What happens when those exports stop being reliable

The last time it happened - mid 198x - the USSR collapsed.

The oil price drop in 2014-2016 delivered a significant jolt to Russia causing economical crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_financial_crisis_(2014.... Among other effects, that affected new weapons systems and armed forces modernization, etc. It also lead to very unpopular pension (social security) eligibility age increase. Also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_financial_crisis_(2014... :

"According to New World Wealth study, over 2,000 millionaires emigrated from Russia."

[doombolt]

Nobody knows for sure. Maybe a Syria-style (but ten times stronger) migration from Russia westwards?

It is assumed that Syrian crisis started happening when its Oil exports dipped in red, as in existing Syrian economy would consume more Oil than they were capable to extract. Worsening climate did not help of course.