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by mindgam3
2758 days ago
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The major problem with using the chess.com data is they don't take into account the time factor. When Magnus offered, the draw, Fabi had exactly 15min 42sec time remaining to play the next 10 moves. That's less than 2 minutes per move, versus Magnus having between 2x-3x that amount. It is hard to understand just how significant of a handicap this is unless you've ever played competitive chess at a national or international level. The human mind starts to break down and freeze up when it is forced to make critical decisions in limited time. This was already starting to happen in the game leading up to the draw offer, as Caruana took more and more time as his positioning was worsening. The end result of this is one player being forced to make a rapid series of moves in a "time scramble" while the other player has the luxury of checking and rechecking his calculations. This gives the player with more time a massive advantage in practice. We're talking at least 100-200 rating points. If chess.com wanted to do a fair analysis, they should have handicapped the White computer with 3-4x less compute time. I guarantee the results would have been significantly more favorable for Black then they already were. |
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Time pressure is practically where he lives, because of how much time he spends calculating. The idea that he's suddenly going to completely forget how to play when the clock is running low doesn't hold water. Especially when he wasn't facing any immediate threat on the board; the advantage for Black was there, but it was theoretical/positional, and was going to take significant work to convert into a result, or even into lines that would make Caruana have to sweat through the next series of moves. And the engine games keep showing that all of Black's advantage can be thrown away with one or two inaccurate moves even very soon after the draw occurred; Carlsen's well within his rights to decide not to risk that just to try to toy with his opponent.