[hummingurban]

Whoever simply makes more money from the goods they export. In this case, China has more to lose.

You forget that in China, you have a dictator who uses violence and fear to keep people in check. They are stuck with his foreign policy abilities, which many analysts will conclude, Xi fucking sucks, including those around him who aren't happy about him being a dictator and praising Mao (has anything ever good come out of ppl who idolize Mao?)

The US is on it's way to prosecuting a Russian KGB asset who has been compromised and being blackmailed to willfully corrupt in order to launder the billions that Putin and his buddies stole from his own fucking country. Thankfully, the US president doesn't have absolute power, cannot stay in power indefinitely, is not immune from the institutions that the American forefathers have created to keep the President in check, a continuity in all the core national security organs such as the CIA and NSA which prevents somebody like Xi from ever pulling the same shit, and cannot just roll over people with tanks and then make a stupid song about how much people love the Tianmen square.

In China, the trade war is having a far more profound impact on society and economy but you will never hear this and neither will the vast majority of citizens in China because information cannot flow freely and it's censored.

If China seems invulnerable and powerful, it's only because they specifically crafted their image in that manner. The fact is China is dysfunctional by and large and anyone who had exposure to their political system knows it can't continue no matter how many active measures they take.

[tchaffee]

You seem to agree with me that a dictatorship can last longer in a trade war? Your gripe seems to be with what a horrible place China is. That might be true. Having lived there and done business there I think it's more nuanced than you're making it out to be. But let's say it really is that bad. Does that win a trade war before the next US elections in 2 years when US consumers might already be frustrated with higher prices?

[nine_k]

Dictatorships are not very efficient economically, it seems.

China has become an industrial powerhouse when some modicum of economic liberty was admitted by Deng Xiaoping. Dictatorship stifles internal economic competition, and makes the economy less and less efficient.

If Mao times look too drastic a comparison, you can compare to the USSR, which was also, well, nuanced, and had leaders stat stayed at power for decades. How well did it fare against the US?

[tchaffee]

China isn't the USSR. China is increasingly capitalist, has had years of excellent economic growth, and has a quickly growing middle class. So my question remains: who gets unelected first when the middle class suffers? I don't think it's the dictator.

[nine_k]

With more heavy-handed government involvement, I'd suppose that China is decreasingly liberal-capitalist and increasingly state/crony-capitalist. Government-controlled huge semi-monopolies are known for comparatively lower efficiency.

[tchaffee]

Then what's confusing is why China's economy grew at something like 10% for many years. When was the last time the US saw that kind of growth? Why aren't corporations democracies? I'm not convinced you have a strong persuasive case, but data is always welcome.

[theandrewbailey]

Taxes and unemployment have gone down, and wages are starting to go up. I wonder if anyone would get angry enough over trade war costs at the end of the day.

[tchaffee]

Soy farmers perhaps?

[bluGill]

They are mad, but Trump has successfully spun to them the idea that they are an unfortunate victim of the situation and things will be better for everyone in the long run if we take care of this.

Well successful to the republicans and most of the independents. This is politics: it should be assumed that Democrat will oppose anything Trump does no matter how good it is - just like republicans opposed everything Obama did.

[hummingurban]

> You seem to agree with me that a dictatorship can last longer in a trade war?

No. You are connecting two separate ideas to say that I agree with you. I did not agree. I don't know who will last longer in the trade war. I do know that throughout history, the US has witnessed dictators come and go for the most part.

> Your gripe seems to be with what a horrible place China is.

No. Again, you are trying to twist my words into a "China sucks". Nowhere did I make such claim, I simply highlighted structural problems within China that suggests fragility of the Party vs the anti-fragile nature of US democracy. I used Trump as a good example of how the system is able to flush the turd, not the turd flushing the system. Please don't try to suggest that I'm comparing China to a toilet, I think it's citizens realize the full depth of the country they live in but out of fear cannot speak out in a manner that contradicts the governments view.

> That might be true. Having lived there and done business there I think it's more nuanced than you're making it out to be.

again this isn't the case of "china sucks" and im not saying you can't have a good time or meet good people in China which you've certainly claimed in your anecdote. It certainly is a surprise to me as I live in a highly concentrated neighborhood of Mainland Chinese folks and I have never ever heard them talk positively as a good place to do business.

> But let's say it really is that bad. Does that win a trade war before the next US elections in 2 years when US consumers might already be frustrated with higher prices?

Again, you are trying to join separate ideas that "China could be bad", "trade war", "consumer price index in 2 years" supports your main argument which is "China cannot suck because it will win the trade war".

Not sure what your issue here is. My guess is as good as yours about the future. I just tried my best to present my opinion, which cannot be taken as the truth and neither can yours. Nothing is solved. Just two HN'ers slugging it out.

[cvwright]

> a Russian KGB asset who has been compromised and being blackmailed

I miss the days when only half the country was consumed with insane conspiracy theories.

[hummingurban]

the conspiracy goes back to the 1980s, with corroborated witnesses from both American and Russian elements.

The watergate journalist wrote a book on him. The guy who prosecuted watergate is looking at finances, money laundering specifically.

I'm not saying this is a 100% thing but it's a more of a case of 99.99999% that current president has been laundering money for the Russian mob since Taj Mahal days. We also see a curious case of a man who was so broke no bank in the world would give him relief....except Russian banks....controlled by the Russian _____ .

I will leave that as a blank for you to complete as an easy exercise.

[tw04]

That was obviously tongue in cheek. But if you still don't think there is a very clear and almost assuredly illegal connection between Trump and Russia I struggle to believe you're exposing yourself to a variety of media sources or following the Mueller investigation at all. The mere fact he refused to enact bilateral sanctions was enough cause for serious concern.

[murph-almighty]

During a trip to China, I got to talk to a citizen via a translator, and eventually the subject went to politics. They asked me how I felt about Trump, and I gave my answer, and was about to ask how they felt about Xi before I caught myself.

We couldn't talk about Xi the way we could talk about Trump because there isn't a way to honestly discuss it without allowing for criticism, or the idea that there's more than the image cultivated by the state. I didn't want to risk anyone's safety if the wrong person heard the wrong thing.

It's jarring to have this happen in real life and realize you suddenly can't have a fulfilling conversation with the other person. The chilling effect is real, and real enough that I'm not sure if I should be posting this, vague as it is.

[throwaway55721]

Hmmm...when I recently went to China, I talked to a bunch of people about Xi and heard good and bad things. We had very engrossing conversations.

Of course, I can speak Mandarin so perhaps that’s why they felt comfortable talking to me.

I’m also of Mexican descent, so that might be another factor.

The irony is that I feel more comfortable using a throwaway alt on HN for this comment because I’m afraid of trolls stalking me on my real account for saying nice things about my experiences in China.

[ksec]

It is impossible to explain that feeling to those who had never been through it. Once they plant the seed of fear in your mind, it is very hard to get rid of it.