[joefranklinsrs]

These flurry of NYTimes favorable articles on China, the last few days, is....fascinating. It's almost like those with vested interests knew a huge crash is about to come to China in 2019, and is trying to unload some investments.

However, the ever connected world is not blind, and can see the dramatic fall China has suffered in the last 2 years in terms of stock market, yuan weakness, capital outflow, human rights, massive debts, international relations, factories leaving, fake GDPs, and much more. $250B in tariff on Chinese imports in January 2019, followed up with potentially rest of the $600B in tariff on Chinese imports in 2019, will crash China.

[Jyaif]

FYI, China is investing in the long run (20 years+).

A couple of points that leads me to think China will dominate the world in the next decades (if it has not started already):

* With the Belt and Road initiative China is building deep relationships with half of the countries of the world.

* Their industry is not slowed down by regulation, so they iterate and learn quickly. For example, some people think they'll be the first to widely deploy self driving cars. Yes there will be a ton of accidents because their technology will suck at first, but they'll be able to improve faster than any company in the west. An other example is everything related to medicine (e.g. gene editing).

* Their culture values hard work. If it were not for the quotas MIT would be 70% asian.

[sdinsn]

Keep in mind that institutional investors don't invest much "in the long run".

[joefranklinsrs]

Belt and Road: Malaysian government stopped a $20B project. Maldives just called it one-sided. India refuses to have anything to do with it. So do most of the EU members. Media around the world is calling it debt trap

Regulation: deadly vaccines. deadly milk powder. Their citizens then choose to buy foreign goods only

hard work: they are at their job 60 hours a week. but only working 20.

[kkarakk]

why are people downvoting this-the only illogical point is the hours worked thing-sure a poorly trained chinese person may only be productive for 20 hours but they can afford to put 6 people on a task that people in the west would pay a single person for apart from software manhours do scale and even in software the majority of the world gets by on "good enough"

[gammateam]

That is probably a valid perspective

Regardless, There are lots of opportunities to consolidate capital and run your venture SUPER quickly in China.

Also as we are comparing China and US, there are plenty of counterpoints that you would probably trivialize as a whataboutism.

So instead of that, honestly you should look at US prohibitions as an instruction manual for what you CAN do in China. Nuanced financial stuff you wouldn't have thought of on your own, just written in plain text and available to do in any growing economy

Many billionaires are minted there because even things like stock market listing standards are much more liberal. The main country's index being comprised of companies where only 1% of the float is trading, with the other 99% being owned by 1 person. They liquidate, you know. You wouldn't see this on the Nasdaq or S&P.

There are plenty of ways to make money from nothing over there, and the barriers of entry are almost impossible in the United States for a working class person with working class friends as you'll never be able to pull off a proper Regulation D offering because nobody can invest in it. You'll never have capital to cover all the bases and scale. You have to spend too much of your life to pull of your one shot, and that has a high failure rate so its back to wage work for you. Whereas the serial entrepreneurs already have a different form of stability and take many shots. Its like playing a game the first time ever and only having 1 life, versus the person that has infinite lives. China doesn't offer any of this in an extremely egalitarian way, but there are multiple extremely high growth regions and service providers that are willing to play ball such that the opportunities are just available.

[T-A]

Exports are about 20% of China's GDP [1], and 18% of those exports go to the US [2]. So even you completely erased all of China's exports to the US, without substitution, you would only subtract 3.6% from its GDP, i.e. little more than half a year's worth of growth at the current rate of about 6.5% per year. Possibly a short recession, definitely not a crash.

[1] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS?location...

[2] https://www.thebalance.com/china-economy-facts-effect-on-us-...

[joefranklinsrs]

You forgot about the millions of jobs that disappear in China after factories leave for other countries.

You forgot about the billions of foreign direct investment that actually helped China to get to where it is today, now leaving the country.

You forgot about the real estate bubble in China deflating. The one that has the middle class of China paying for $1M house with their $1300/month income.

[T-A]

I responded to your closing statement that "$250B in tariff on Chinese imports in January 2019, followed up with potentially rest of the $600B in tariff on Chinese imports in 2019, will crash China". It's the only thing you wrote which at least contains some numbers, although you got them wrong (it's tariffs on $250 billions worth of imports, not "$250 billion in tariff", etc.).

More serious problems than US tariffs may well crash China's economy, but if you now want to argue so, you'd better bring (correct) numbers and analysis, not just handwaving about "millions of jobs that disappear" and so on (and keep in mind that a million in a country of more than one billion is not a whole lot of anything).

[scruffyherder]

Housing in China has nothing to do with the real estate market.

The real estate market is tied to GDP growth so there is such an excess of housing that there are ghost cities. It's also when you hear stupid stories about power plant shutdowns and going green.

I've been in China for over 5 years and can assure you that almost all news that is presented in the west is either misleading or just wildly out of context, to give a vastly different perception.

But there is far more DIY opportunity in China, but you have to do it yourself. Nobody is going to show you how or help.