[YeGoblynQueenne]

That's a very good point, however eliminating the impossible (or just improbable) is a necessary first step towards finding "the truth".

Then all you need is a good prior, to allow you to tell the truth from the nontruth. And the er, simplest prior is the Occamist prior- that the simplest explanation is the most likely to be true.

Going by which, Kurtz79 is the most likely author of the post above, since that's the simplest explanation that is not impossible (or improbable).

Edit: it's "simplest" in the sense it doesn't require REASONS.