[throwaway487548]

Oh, numeric astrology and probability tantras.

Future is not predictable by definition. It is just an abstract concept, a projection of the mind. Any modeling, however close to reality it might seem to be, is disconnected from it, like a movie or a cartoon. Following complex probabilistic inferences based on sophisticated models is like to act in life guided by movies or tantric literature (unless you are Goldman Sachs, of course).

For a fully observable, discrete, fully deterministic models, such as dice or a deck of cards probability could only say how likely a certain outcome might be, but not (and never) what exactly the next outcome would be.

Estimation of anything about non-fully-observable, partially-deterministic environments is a fucking numeric astrology with cosplay of being a math genius.

No matter what kind of math you pile up - equations from thermodynamics, gaussian distributions or what not it is still disconnected from reality stories, like the ones in tantras.