| I believe that the cost to produce a self-driving car will be coming down, but let’s look at the $250k price tag. Over 6 years, that comes to $114/day. 1 ride per hour at $5 per ride would hit $120/day. Assuming a 2 mile ride, that would be 105k miles which is well within the car’s usable life. At 3 miles, it would be 160k miles which is still within a car’s lifespan. It looks like Uber is $1.35/mile with a $2.10 base fare and $1.85 fee. A 3 mile ride should be able to get $5. Plus, it’s really about the long run. Operating margin might be negative for a bit, but the cost of the technology and manufacturing will come down significantly. Still, even today, I think $250k just isn’t that bad. I think most drivers will do a lot more than $5/hour in gross revenue. It would be really expensive to make a fleet, but the economics are so compelling, even at high prices. I mean, Americans are often spending $35,000 on a car. If a self-driving vehicle can service the needs of 7 people, it can be cheaper than car ownership. While the price of driverless tech might be high now, the prices of car ownership and human labor are both very high as well and only one of those three prices is likely to decrease over time. |