| > And yet it's the conclusion every major thinker (and practicer) in our field has come to (plus there's historical evidence from tons of mis-estimated projects, regardless of scope and budget). I agree fully and I think the main issue is this: People estimating, wanting estimates, "fueling" the workplace and ways in which businesses operate where estimates and milestones are the norms we work around... The big thing I see missing is the fact that mostly everyone involved in these "mental work simulations" (as I'll call them) is calculating all of the tasks for completion against time it takes to complete tasks. There have been some people commenting on, "I am glad to give an estimate so long as I'm allowed to add ample padding time for unexpected issues, scope creep, and then I'm allowed to double the entire estimate or at least add 75%. If I can get that estimate signed off on I'm fine with estimating". And that's probably where I'd say I sit and feel most comfortable: "I'm fine with giving estimates so long as the person singing off on them realizes I'm really just giving a best case scenario guess with a bunch of worst case scenario 'what-if's' built in as well as some 'inevitable scope creep / customers deciding to change specs on the fly' type stuff." But something is still missing. There is a lot of lingo and business-speak and cross-department buzzword ad-libbing taking place but not a whole lot of ground is being broken in terms of moving things forward. Why is that? The big thing that's missing from ALL OF THIS (IMHO)? Everyone is basing all of these estimates as if things were taking place in a vacuum. Even in that vacuum, over time, estimators, project managers, and developers have come to realize that including padding time for inevitable issues, scope and feature creep, and unforeseen circumstances is an absolute must. Even then, that's inside a vacuum of sorts. I truly believe it's impossible to plan without falling prey to the "Estimate inside a vacuum" issue. Even if you are a driveway paver and you've paved 10,000+ 100' driveways in your illustrious 20 year career there is going to be something unforeseen that comes up that will prevent your 10,001th job from being completed under time and under budget. The problem is that there is no way for us to truly determine any and all possible issues that could arise. The bigger issue is that bosses and clients don't tend to care when money is on the table, jobs are at stake, and careers are on the line. So we create estimates and we miss them and promise to get it right next time. Even though we know we never will, vacuum or not. |