| We have an example AGI - the human brain. We have an example superintelligence - humans working together in groups such as corporations are a superintellgence. So from that, the invention of a human-level AGI naturally leads to superintelligence - lots of the AGIs cooperating. The question then becomes of whether we're going to get to AGI. Evidence points to yes. AGI (human intelligence) is a collection of abilities and the machine learning community is steadily making progress on them. Speech, vision, machine translation, question answering, summarization etc. are all being worked on and steady progress, or in many cases - rapid progress, is being made. Unsupervised learning and reinforcement learning are the frontiers and both have advancements in just the past couple of years (GANs, predictive learning, inverse reinforcement learning, imitation learning, domain randomization). Unsupervised learning in particular is likely the key to AGI and only recently has significant progress been made on it - predictive learning (as Yann Lecun calls it). (Personal conjecture - the next couple of years when a larger number of people investigate predictive learning might lead to AGI - in maybe just 2 years). |