[bzbarsky]

By any reasonable definition of "state of war", a state of war exists between Israel and Iran and has for a long time. The only reason it's not official is that since 1979 Iran has not recognized the existence of Israel at all, and hence can't officially declare war on an entity which it claims does not exist.

[JBReefer]

Israel's war record also has to give Iran pause - Israel does not fuck around. The 6 day war embarrassed a ton of leaders in that part of the world.

[bzbarsky]

Iran is far enough away from Israel that it would be difficult for Israel to actually project power there. The distance from Tiberias (northeast of Israel) to Ahvaz (southwest Iran) is ~780 miles. If you go to Tehran instead of Ahvaz, it's 930 miles. An F-16 has a combat radius of 340 miles. An F-15 can do ~1000 miles. An F-35 has a combat radius of ~700 miles. You can do mid-air refueling, but doing it at scale in a situation like the 6-day war is not simple either. As far as I know, Israel does not operate dedicated long-range bombers.

It's easy for people in the US to forget the effects of distance like this, because the US approach to this situation would involve parking a carrier group or three (which Israel doesn't have) off Iran's coast in the Persian Gulf, using those to suppress air defenses, and then using those and strategic bombers (which Israel also doesn't have) to strike ground targets.

Or put another way, fear of Israel's military sure hasn't prevented Iran funding Hezbollah, which would generally be considered an act of war in itself given that Hezbollah then uses those funds to fire rockets and artillery into Israel.

[cyphunk]

Landgrabbing is always unexpected