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by gonehome 2796 days ago
I think you're probably right, but I'd be very surprised if Snap survives - they've been outplayed by Facebook and Zuckerberg is a better CEO.

If you're looking for a stock to short Snap seems like a good choice - I'd bet on failure in a few years or some sad acquisition on poor terms.

The only other tech company I'm pretty confident will fail is Magic Leap, but unfortunately they're private so hard to bet against.
2 comments
seibelj 2796 days ago
I’ve made a good amount of cash shorting SNAP, I can’t understand who is buying when they have provided guidance of decreasing DAU’s for at least one more quarter. I hope employees at SNAP are negotiating more stock or salary, they could do so much better at other firms.
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klodolph 2796 days ago
Some of them are doing much better at other firms... from what I hear, leaving for SNAP and then coming back two years later at level N+2.
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jowiar 2796 days ago
Yeah -- I bought some puts at 5 expiring in January for a nickel apiece in August... It was pretty obvious there was nothing there and would drop like a stone -- the question was when the market would wake up. I honestly don't understand what the longs are betting on here, either.
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mrep 2796 days ago
Someone in my building has a magic leap and I got to try it yesterday and it was pretty impressive. We played angry birds and you could walk around the bird structure shooting birds at it and it perfectly tracked everything.

Granted I haven't tried any other AR or VR device but combine that with some CAD software, google assistant, and some leap motion style hand tracking and you're now Tony Stark building iron man.

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gonehome 2796 days ago
I played with one too, but my take away was the opposite.

- It was dark, it looked like I was looking at a screen with sunglasses to the outside world.

- It didn't feel like I was looking at things in the real world.

- The FOV was pretty poor, I could see the edges on the sides and above.

- The battery life was short and the device was expensive.

Successful AR has obvious applications and will be huge, but the Magic Leap device falls way short of the hype [1] and I'm not convinced they'll be the ones to pull it off.

If you have a chance you should try VR (like the HTC Vive) - current VR is actually impressive.

[1] https://twitter.com/fernandojsg/status/1017411969169555457

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