[kllrnohj]

> Tesla could realistically hit 500,000 cars next year, almost 10% of total cars sold in America.

US consumer auto sales per year are in the 16-17 million range. I personally wouldn't consider 3% to be "almost 10%", do you?

But I don't think they realistically can hit 500,000 cars next year, either. They moved 70k cars in Q3. There's no reason to believe they can double that in 6 months or so particularly as the Model S & X sales have been fairly stable. So that means the Model 3 needs to somehow grow to around 400k/year in order to get to 500k cars next year.

They state production of Model 3 was up to 5,300 per week and that the production system had stabilized with gradual monthly improvements. So currently Tesla can only even build 275k Model 3's a year. I don't think doubling that in such a short time frame meshes with Tesla's comments of "gradual monthly improvements."

350,000 cars in 2019 seems much more likely assuming Model 3 demand holds strong.

[propman]

I meant cars, not all autos. Cars are 6.2 million. Musk said he’s trying to get to 6000 a week by the end of August and 10,000 a week in 2019. The demand is clearly there as are the profit margins even sans ev credit. I know he overestimates things a lot but that tells me they are seriously considering ramping up production. As the production and now delivery processes streamline, they can definitely hit 6000 by end of year and realistically hit 8000 by mid 2019.

[swarnie_]

While i'm totally behind this rocket ship you need to take any number Musk give you and add a random number of months between 6 and 18 to it.

[Reason077]

Elon Musk has reiterated recently that Tesla's goal is to reach Model 3 production of 10,000 per week in 2019.

But not all of those sales will be in the US. According to the Q3 update document:

"The mid-sized premium sedan market in Europe is more than twice as big as the same segment in the US. This is why we are excited to bring Model 3 to Europe early next year. "

[kllrnohj]

> But not all of those sales will be in the US. According to the Q3 update document:

Which would make it even less likely Tesla can hit 10% of US passenger car sales as they'll be sacrificing what little production they have to try and break into other markets.

Anyway just hitting 10k/week in 2019 isn't sufficient for the 500k number. They'd need to average 10k week for the entirety of 2019. Very different things.

[FireBeyond]

The number of auto sales in the US is determined by demand, not by how much auto makers can supply (within price adjustment constraints, of course).

[Reason077]

The Model 3 is currently production constrained. Tesla sell as many as they can produce.

[adventured]

> US consumer auto sales per year are in the 16-17 million range. I personally wouldn't consider 3% to be "almost 10%", do you?

The parent comment said "cars." You switched that to consumer auto sales. 6.3 million passenger cars were sold in the US in 2017. With passenger car sales declining and generally losing popularity in the US (dropping from 7.9m in 2014), it's plausible that 500,000 will in fact be "almost" 10% of total cars sold in the US in 2019.

[SilasX]

In common parlance, an SUV counts in "all cars sold", so it's misleading, even if technically correct.

[ProfessorLayton]

I suppose if US passenger car sales, a segment the Model 3 & S belong to, decline by 1/3 in 2019 that statement could ring true.

[burger_moon]

Ford killed off their entire car line up except the mustang so there will be a fairly significant drop from that alone.