[bunderbunder]

Uber and Lyft have very little moat to protect them if someone else develops self-driving cars first.

They haven't succeeded in their initial goal of exterminating the existing cab companies, and that leaves them in a situation where developing self-driving technology could be a matter of life and death for them. The incumbent cab companies are much better positioned to profit from self-driving cars. They've already got all the infrastructure, expertise and staff it takes to manage fleets of vehicles. The bigger ones already have their own apps (e.g., Curb). If self-driving cars hit the general market first, basically all they have to do to run Uber and Lift out of town is buy some and factor the fact that they aren't paying cab drivers anymore into their prices.

By contrast, most of Uber and Lyft's basic business models right now are predicated on the idea of hiring humans, who in turn manage their own cars. That has deep implications: It means they have zero expertise in fleet management. They don't have any of their own garages for storing cars and handling maintenance. They do have apps, but the most valuable parts of their apps are the parts for managing humans. Incentive mechanisms designed to try and ensure that supply of rides and demand for rides remain relatively stable, for example. Their existing business operations are heavily built around recruiting humans - both riders and drivers. None of that is particularly useful in a world with self-driving cars, and the bits that are - basically just the mechanics of enabling people to hail rides and pay for them - are drastically easy to copy.

[abathur]

This seems mostly right.

That said, worth noting that the fleet management/maintenance expertise will be of unknown/unproven value for managing self-driving cars. No domain experience; just spitballing...

- Unmanned SDC might have significantly different refuel/recharge/cleaning/roadside assistance/accident-response needs. - Unmanned SDC availability/hours/mileage patterns are likely to differ significantly over time when they aren't tethered to bodily functions. - The size and location of fixed fleet-management infrastructure may be suboptimal for different patterns; they might start off as an advantage but become a drag as players with less inertia optimize. - SDC sensor maintenance is going to be a big unknown to these companies. - Their liquidity and vehicle retirement/acquisition processes may not be compatible with rapid fleet replacement without outside help. - Even if they do manage a rapid replacement cycle, the throughput of their fleet management processes may be closely tied to their normal acquisition cycles. - Unless they're going to choose that moment to transition to an app-only-ride-request model, they may have to overcome significant design/software/hardware dev challenges of their own to handle non-app customers (i.e., being hailed on the street, taking verbal directions from people who may be drunk or not know where they're going, stop requests, destination changes...).

[Animats]

Waymo has Avis handling their fleet management. The rental car companies are in a good position to take on Uber/Lyft if they get self driving. They're already renting cars; this is just shorter term rentals.

[bunderbunder]

I can also see big automakers helping their dealerships convert into a network of fleet managers.

[whatshisface]

The first self-driving car deployment could be someone who buys a single car and uses Uber and Lyft as pre-made customer-finding platforms. If self-driving cars become cheaper than humans by enough of a margin for cab companies, then quick movers with capital can work with Uber or Lyft to deploy a self-driving micro-fleet of their own. It would be a great way to park your money, a much cheaper version of buying lease properties or fast food franchises.

[bunderbunder]

But not, I think, cheaper than a cab company setting up their own fleet.

Being a bigger player, a cab company is better-positioned to take advantage of what few economies of scale exist in this space: The power to negotiate a lower per-unit cost, and the ability to operate your own garage so you don't have to pay retail prices for maintenance and repairs.

The cab company would also be the more vertically integrated option, which gives them additional opportunities to economise and pass the savings on to the customer.

[cercatrova]

Tesla has stated that this is exactly what they would allow customers to do, rent out their self driving cars when not in use to generate revenue for the customer and I assume Tesla would take a cut as well.

[megablast]

I think you are very wrong. Uber and Lyft are better positioned than the taxi companies. They are bigger, have more money, and could even let other people buy the cars, and let them run them. Taxi's have nothing but people, which is something you don't need, and old cars.