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by Swizec 2802 days ago
It's like my bird's vet said once: If you start measuring, you're gonna find stuff. The more you dig, the more you find. Does it mean your bird is sick? Eh look at him, does he look like a sick bird?

My girlfriend can be very ... concerned. We spent $1000 in vet bills before a real avian expert was like "Guys, he's fine. Look how happy he is. He just loves the attention."

Apparently one of his tests for vet interns is to tell them "This bird is sick. Figure it out". Then he gives them a perfectly healthy bird. Their bias always makes them find something. Caused by their tests half the time because they're stressing the bird.

4 comments

> Apparently one of his tests for vet interns is to tell them "This bird is sick. Figure it out". Then he gives them a perfectly healthy bird. Their bias always makes them find something.

Seems like the "bias" in that case is likely due to an authority figure intentionally misleading them in the context of a "test", where one naturally assumes they're not being deceived by the very premise of said test? If an actual bird owner came in as a client and said the same (or if the test explicitly told them to assume this is the situation), the interns might very well still realize the client is wrong.

I think the lesson he’s teaching is that examination should be hollistic, not just focus on specific tests. Different tests are appropriate in different situations and they often give conflicting results.

I’m no vet but if you have to dig hard for signs of illness, the patient likely isn’t sick. Our bird had increased uric acid. Could be anything. It was a little high.

If he was actua sick we wouldn’t be guessing whether the number is high. It’s be 10x. Waaay out of bounds. A clear signal.

It’s like in product design. Your conversion rate inproved 0.05% after you ran an experiment for 2 days. Is that a signal or noise? Eh probably just noise. Observe longer.

The problem with comfortably saying the client is wrong is tht they’re the authority figure. They have years of data, you have 30 minutes with the patient.

And yes I have had vets casually chat with me for 2 hours when they did spot something suspicious in the bird’s behavior and wanted to observe longer to see if it’s a pattern.

I'm not a vet, but if I were and someone said "This bird is sick." I hope the first question I'd ask is "Why do you think so?" Not to doubt the person but to figure out what the presenting symptoms were.
It is not abstract general someone. It is very concretely more experience professional and teacher whose judgement you trust more then your own. And no, if you dont go much out of way to be approachable or have reason to be afraid of him, no matter how small, they will not ask more. Because most interns know they are beginners and don't know yet.
"Diagnostic stewardship" is currently a hot topic in infection control and antimicrobial resistance work for exactly this reason. If we look hard enough, we'll find something to give you antibiotics for, even if you don't need them.
I've heard similar sentiments around looking at API monitoring graphs when you're not investigating a specific problem. Weird stuff happens all the time, and most of the time it's no big deal.
I have similar sentiments towards the health of humans.