[jaawn]

Which models did you look at? I don't remember a lot of models that are new to the market recently. I checked the Mazda CX-3 and the Nissan Leaf, and the Model 3 does appear to have crushed both of those based on first year numbers.

[sokoloff]

I tried to find "truly new" models (rather than generation refreshes or name changes). The first five I thought of were the Lexus RX SUV, the Fiat 500, the Mini Cooper, the 1965 Mustang, the 2015 Mustang (a ground-up re-platform, not a restyling effort).

It would be possible to argue that Tesla outproduced the Mini Cooper (depending on how exactly you shade the first year of production).

The others handily beat them, with the 1965 Mustang crushing Tesla...

[kidsnow]

Which year Lexus RX are you referring to? The Lexus RX SUV has been around a long time, and was originally based on a car platform which I believe was the Toyota Camry / Lexus ES platform.

[chemmail]

The RX was released in 98 but was really a rebadged Toyota Harrier and came out a year prior in JDM.

[chemmail]

You could argue the '65 Stang was a cheap Falcon. So they had everything in place, just changed up the bodywork.

[sokoloff]

Is the Model 3 just a cheaper Model S by the same argument?

(It's a genuine question. Yes, the Mustang was based in part on the prior Falcon platform. Wouldn't Tesla sensibly base the 3 in part on the S in the same way Ford continued to sell the Falcon alongside the Mustang? If Tesla is sharing literally nothing across models, that seems like a non-sensical way to run a car company to me.)

[peeters]

They're sharing what they can obviously, but the platform will be different. There are a lot of cars that are like 90% similar, especially sedans and crossovers sharing the same platform. To that extent, the Model X apparently used the Model S platform as its starting point (but no idea if it's still shared). The Model 3 however is a mid-sized sedan compared to S's full-size, so the sharing would mostly be limited to tech and components, but not platform.

[peeters]

It's a lot harder to quantify "ramp-up" for these models too, because they almost never have a bare starting point. E.g. CX-3 is (IIRC) based on the Mazda2 platform, so do you include the preceding Mazda2 ramp-up in the number?

Still it's the pro-Tesla person that's making the claim; the onus is on them to provide the numbers or if it's not a fair comparison, to avoid it (or clarify it).

[jaawn]

I guess that is fair, but according to this carsalesbase.com site, it isn't even remotely close. Tesla has built/sold more Model 3s in its first year of production than anything else I can find...by a lot. They built/sold more in the past few months than entire years for all of the other models I have checked.

That's why I asked what models the other person looked at because so far all of the information I can see from the site that they linked confirms the "pro-Tesla" person's statements.

[sokoloff]

Ford sold ~559,500 1965 Mustangs in a much smaller overall market.

Chevy sold over 200K Corvairs each of the three first years of launch.

First 12 months deliveries of Tesla Model 3 were a little over 26K. First 15 months deliveries (which is more apples-to-apples with other company "first year" launches) were a little over 80K.

It's not even close, IMO... Do you see the figures differently?

[Latteland]

Those are high numbers, wow, and Tesla hardly started producing them in mass until mid year 2018. They could get to 50k a calendar year if Q3 holds. Just for estimation purposes let's use that. It's hard to believe they'd do as well as one of the best selling cars of all time, but they are in a different segment too. Tesla is selling cars that are more expensive than average, maybe a more fair comparison is the bmw 3 series, audi 3 or 4 series type cars. At least Tesla is doing pretty well at the current moment, but they are not doing as well as Mustang or Corvair - some of the best selling cars of all time.

Tesla has been limited by production of batteries and cars, now they have scaled those a lot. But they aren't the fastest of history, that seems clear. Unless they suddenly sell 125k cars a quarter they won't catch Mustang.