[jack6e]

But the effect of that would be to cause massive distrust of Chinese suppliers and cause a shift away from electronics being produced there. IC and cyber experts generally identify the Chinese as using intelligence operations for primarily economic purposes, as compared to Russian/Iranian/North Korean objectives being military or political. A Chinese military intelligence agency using cyber espionage to intentionally disrupt one of the most significant export industries of the Chinese economy does not seem likely, nor does it seem to provide such an out-sized strategic benefit as to be worth the economic cost.

[throwaway290342]

Good point, I agree with that thinking. But the actual execution of such a hardware-based attack would surely be discovered at some point anyway, and risk the same negative outcome. So then that would leave the only possible conclusion that the story just isn't true at all. In the end, none of it makes clear sense...

[jack6e]

The difference is two-fold: actively planting a fake story means that first, the espionage is fake and thus no real intelligence can be gathered, so the only benefit is the hypothetical respect you suggested; second, the story will definitely get out, thus the potential for the negative effect is innately 100%. However, as a real intelligence operation the cost/benefit analysis is inverted, because there is a real, tangible benefit to extracting possibly sensitive commercial and national security information. And while an eventual discovery is always a possibility, it seems care was taken to ensure it would only be a small possibility, and that in any case it would be in the future, hopefully after a large amount of useful data is extracted.

So in the planted story hypothesis, there is certainty of negative outcomes with only the potential for positive outcomes, and those only intangible, while in the this-is-real hypothesis, there is near certainty of some tangible benefit with good probability of significant tangible benefit, with only a potential, distant, deniable risk of negative outcome.

[tracker1]

I would say that given the amount of motherboard variants, even gene rationally that have varying differences, especially in component supplies, it was pretty unlikely to see the issue. I mean, while some may take a MB out and inspect it thoroughly, most that I'm aware of, will plug it in and if it works, leave it there.