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by WouterZ 2803 days ago
Lack of inflation is not easily understood through the lens of individuals.

Better to look at the fractional reserve system. The Fed creates money (M0), a lot of it in the shape of quantitative easing. But it was offsetting the deleveraging banks (reduction in M, M2 and M3). M0 = cash, M1= M0+ short-term instruments, M2= M1 + medium-term, M3 = M2 + long-term stuff /mortgages.

Even now, banks are less leveraged due to more stringent capital requirements (think Basel accords).

Translation to inflation is tricky. It's about demans vs. supply at its fundamentals - too much supply them you introduce inflation. Since banks can create money, supply is governed by M1,M2,M3 depending on the horizon. Demand is the economy which looks to be booming. Plus in the case of the US, the dollar is still the global reserve currency. So we have China, developing countries wanting more dollars. And the world still uses it as a vehicle currency, trade in brent oil is in dollars.

And we have inflation expectations - which is why the Fed is independent. And Trump should be quiet. The Fed will target 2%, thus we expect it to be 2%.