[lotsofpulp]

If you're thinking about long term, 10 to 20+ years into the future, you need to look at the state's debt, namely unfunded defined benefit pension obligations. IL is the worst, and that's using rosy assumptions:

https://graphics.wsj.com/table/Connecticut_102015

Combined with the fact that the rest of IL isn't burgeoning, and that Chicago is the main source of income, it would be prudent to expect ever increasing taxes and reduced services. Other states also have problems, but there are a few states whose problems are in another league.

Personally, I would need a big discount to consider Chicago, as being outdoors is a big part of my life.

[60654]

Yeah, if the pension plan had no assets, the state would be in deep trouble, as would most others. But in terms of pension cashflow as a fraction of total assets, IL is actually doing really well, better than the vast majority of states: https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/issue-bri...

Which is what allowed politicians to kick the can down the road for so long. So yes, there is a hole and it needs to be plugged. But this is a big state, plan assets are considerable, and there's a lot of new contributions coming in all the time as well. This won't trigger "ever increasing taxes" as some doomsaying politicians put it, there can be a correction once there is political will to do so.

[lotsofpulp]

The deficit is including any returns on existing plan assets. And each year, the share of the tax receipts that go towards paying debt (including pensions) keeps increasing. Obviously, something will have to be cut to make up for this.