> Self driving cars will have their AI-winter time soon
I don't see this happening any time soon. There might be a contraction in highly speculative investments (i.e., VC cash) aimed at autonomous driving systems. However, even if tech never gets beyond level 2, this will still be a high-growth and high-wage field for the next couple of decades as automobile manufacturers and their tier one suppliers incorporate existing ADAS across the lineup.
And that's to say nothing of the many limited domains where level 4 is definitely doable, including closed-environment mining and manufacturing sites. As well as adjacent industries (e.g., maritime) where even levels 1 and 2 could help a lot.
Self-driving is a scorching hot fireball right now. It might cool down as people realize that level 4-5 is not happening any time soon, but a prolonged winter is hard to believe.
>And that's to say nothing of the many limited domains where level 4 is definitely doable, including closed-environment mining and manufacturing sites. As well as adjacent industries (e.g., maritime) where even levels 1 and 2 could help a lot.
Yeah, I have no doubt about special purpose level 4 in limited environments. My comment was about seeing general purpose 4 and 5.
The definition of level 5 being "under all roadway and environmental conditions that can be managed by a human driver" means that whatever mechanism being used would have a better "brain" (at least in the area of "driving") than the human one, correct?
If yes: kind of scary, as such capability would probably have to include the comprehension/understanding of e.g. "context", the ability to "abstract", be able to generalize from indirecly related informations, etc.. to understand potential upcoming dangers.
For example when driving behind a truck which has its trailer that wobbles continuously left and right (but which can still keep its lane) because of a partially flat tire would probably need a very advanced AI to recognize the potential danger.
Yes... the problem of autonomous cars is likely that of strong, general purpose AI.
Unfortunately, the politics around autonomous cars insists that human beings are basically idiots behind the wheel, so the problem seems more trivial than it is. After all, how hard can it be to design an AI smarter than an idiot?
>For example when driving behind a truck which has its trailer that wobbles continuously left and right (but which can still keep its lane) because of a partially flat tire would probably need a very advanced AI to recognize the potential danger.
I think it would be surprising if self driving cars didn't launch in the next 10 years. Consider that most people never drive more than 10 miles from their home on a given day. It's pretty trivial to imagine even "limited" AI vehicles being able to serve vast swaths of the population.
In that case, likely a lot of people would want to not have to invest in the hefty price of owning, maintaining, and insuring a vehicle, let alone driving which everyone knows is more dangerous than most things a person does in a given day.
> Consider that most people never drive more than 10 miles from their home on a given day.
This is simply untrue if you're considering average commute distance of drivers in major cities.
> hefty price of owning, maintaining, and insuring a vehicle
These costs are highly variable, and many reasonable options are quite cheap.
I don't see self-driving cars catching on any time soon in the US. Possibly in Europe. I think they will be limited to smaller vehicles that operate in glorified bike lines, only on known routes.
> This is simply untrue if you're considering average commute distance of drivers in major cities.
I'm sure that'd be correct if you'd said suburbs and rural areas, but according to this[0], the average commute for almost every major city is under 10 miles.
>In that case, likely a lot of people would want to not have to invest in the hefty price of owning, maintaining, and insuring a vehicle, let alone driving which everyone knows is more dangerous than most things a person does in a given day.
All of the costs are worth it, as long as I don't have to share transportation with anyone else.
I don't see this happening any time soon. There might be a contraction in highly speculative investments (i.e., VC cash) aimed at autonomous driving systems. However, even if tech never gets beyond level 2, this will still be a high-growth and high-wage field for the next couple of decades as automobile manufacturers and their tier one suppliers incorporate existing ADAS across the lineup.
And that's to say nothing of the many limited domains where level 4 is definitely doable, including closed-environment mining and manufacturing sites. As well as adjacent industries (e.g., maritime) where even levels 1 and 2 could help a lot.
Self-driving is a scorching hot fireball right now. It might cool down as people realize that level 4-5 is not happening any time soon, but a prolonged winter is hard to believe.