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The comparison to chess and go seems strange to me, I wonder if you could elaborate? Certainly chess has a mental component, players develop styles, study one another, and try to throw opponents off balance. But all of that happens as a layer on top of the need to actually make good moves over the board - a bishop and knight endgame simply has a correct answer. Go is less constrained, but it's still alternating turns in a deterministic, perfect information setting. Pokemon, meanwhile, looks to me somewhere between DOTA and poker. It's nondeterministic on crits, paralysis, accuracy, and a great deal else. It's effectively nondiscrete, in the sense that there's lots of variance which has only a chance of mattering. And it's heavily hidden-information - defining features like moveset aren't revealed. Meanwhile, the OpenAI Dota restrictions are heavily centered on removing hidden information (invisibility, wards) and unexpected state changes (summons, quelling blade, infused raindrop). I expect Pokemon would be more tractable on these issues because the hidden information is usually discrete. (Think "does he have Protect" as opposed to "is he standing invisible on this pixel?") But they're still major stumbling blocks, especially with randomness that massively expands the branching factor of each interaction. A given Pokemon move might look something like "if Ferrothorn uses Leech Seed, will it hit, and if so will he switch out, and if so will he go to Kartana, and if he does will it Swords Dance or does it have Choice Band or does it have Fightinium Z, or will he go to Koko, and if so does it have HP Fire or is it a bluff?" Everything there past "use this move" is laboring under a high branching factor with high randomness. I don't think it'd be impossible to do fairly well on the Pokemon Showdown ladder with a medium amount of advance work; an AI can run a damage calculator and just assume every enemy has one of the recommended movesets from the wiki, and be assigned a viable team with relatively low variance and branching. But if you take away any of that hand curation, I expect things would go downhill pretty fast. And if you take it out of Showdown premades into a format where the enemy lineup isn't known in advance, I'd expect the now-intractable branching factor to lead to very poor performance with incredibly slow progress. It'd be a damn interesting experiment, though. |