[cosmie]

You're exactly right, and I would put those in the the latter group, not the former. Those individuals know precisely why they're getting their MBA, and don't have the "???" step in their progression. Rather, they intend to leverage the network and exposure they developed during their 2-3 years consulting, plus the signaling from the MBA, to pivot into a particular level and type of role post-MBA.

Your caveat at the end is also pretty key. If you spend 2-3 years barely scraping by with mediocre results in consulting and don't get promoted, and expect to do the post-MBA pivot, you'll have issues (or you have family connections and it's all moot anyway).

But I was more speaking to people who go and get a random entry-level industry job after their bachelors, spend 2-3 years putting their time in, crawl back to school for an MBA, and expect the six figure job offers to just roll in. That's surprisingly common (not just for MBA, but for many graduate programs).