[ska]

Working in the industry you already know this but FP vs TP rates are a fundamental issue in nearly any system like this (i.e. non diagnostic). You typically can’t get rid of them, so the trick is to balance it in such a way for net positive benefit as you note. This may mean some unneeded visits, balanced by more needed interventions that would otherwise be missed.

Apple Watch isn’t really any different here, except potentially in scale. While that does mean potential impact is large, there is no a priori reason to assume apple has got it wrong; it’s not that difficult to find the right people for this sort of project.

It would be very interesting to see an ROC curve ...