[chriswarbo]

> A lot of arguments about science are really arguments about confidence. E.g. most climate change scientists are fairly sure about their models, but the lack of absolutely certainty makes it possible for deniers to cherry pick a tiny collection of outlier scientists who will argue in public that it's all nonsense.

I think scale/proportion is also a problem. Humans seem to place a lot of value in narratives/stories but we aren't so good with quantities (e.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conjunction_fallacy ). Pretty much everything (economics, climate, etc.) has factors pushing it in different directions, so we can always find a counterargument to any position (e.g. we can rebuff climate change by pointing to solar cycles, CO2 causing extra plant growth, etc.); that's fine, but some factors are overwhelmingly more important than others, whilst we seem to cling on to these stories/narratives and give them more equal weighting than we should.

As a concrete example, a family member used to leave their lights on overnight, claiming that "they use more energy than normal when they're first switched on". Whilst true, the saving is cancelled out after seconds ( e.g. https://www.energy.gov/energysaver/when-turn-your-lights )