[sonnyblarney]

1) 20% is a lot, moreover, others will join, and the US will strong arm others into playing.

2) China has little with which to retaliate. They can do whatever they want to 'American farmers' it won't matter because it's just a commodity: China will buy it's soy beans from Brazil, and Brazil's other customers will buy from the US. It'll have a null effect.

China is right now creating the biggest debt bubble the world has ever seen and it's scary - we don't know where they are going to go next.

See, in 2004 they had so much upside in front of them - but now ... it's not so clear.

I think we're going to see China grow at a more regular rate of 4% and that in the end, nothing existential will come of this trade war. It will hurt China a little worse than the US but it's not like we're going to see a fundamental shift in anything.