[joefranklinsrs]

"If those are actually further up the value chain leading to exports to the US (as you seem to suggest), those would largely be imported goods."

The Chinese factories that produce goods destined for US, also produce goods for other countries, leading to trade between China and those countries. When factories move to Malaysia or Vietnam, those trades disappear.

"as proven by the fact that plenty of brands have no trouble selling basically everywhere despite "fragmented" markets" . I was addressing your point "they can still manufacture goods intended for anywhere else in the world there - just not for the US" . You're basically losing 30%-40% of your sales. That's not something that can just be brushed off.

"India already appears to be backpedaling on their earlier posturing." Citation? a cursory search shows otherwise https://www.power-technology.com/comment/india-levies-safegu... https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/indl-goods/svs...

"especially now that Chinese labor and manufacturing is going to become cheaper again"

Why? Wage and rent inflation is skyrocketing in China. Yuan will drop dramatically, which means energy/resource imports will skyrocket.

[rgbrenner]

"30-40%" is literally all exports from China. You're saying that if the US doesn't trade with them, there won't be a single buyer of Chinese goods anywhere in the world? That's pretty far fetched.