[07d046]

I have no idea how likely that is, but that looks like an ideal scenario for the White House, and a possible existential threat for the Chinese Communist Party. People have a habit of putting up with a lot when the economy is growing dramatically and their lives are noticeably improving, but they might not be so happy with an increasingly oppressive government and a struggling economy that isn't giving any sign of future greatness.

[seanmcdirmid]

Ya, the CCP has also taken a paternal-like responsibility for much of the economy, making guarantees about future positive economic performance and creating a lot of moral hazard in the process. This is why they are trying to avoid even a recession at all costs, or a property market bust.

[int_19h]

Thing is, an oppressive government can deal with more discontent from the citizenry than a democracy like US. So it's not just a question of relative GDP and balances etc - purely economic issues - it's also a question of who is more resilient politically. I'm not so sure US is, if only because politicians have to chase votes, and even relatively minor economic pains among important constituencies can blow up very quickly.

[07d046]

I think it goes both ways. As a democracy, America has a pressure valve if things are going poorly, and a peaceful transition of power to the other side of politics is always an election away. (It could fall as a democracy, but it's hard to see a trade war with China being a cause for that.) Maybe America might discover a lack of political will, but there's also a chance it could be wrapped up in nationalism and sold to voters, and action against China is one of the rare things that a number of strongly anti-Trump people do support.

As the rulers of a one-party totalitarian state, the CCP is setting itself up to take the credit and blame for everything in China. Following the "century of humiliation", China is attempting a century of rejuvenation. It started poorly with the Cultural Revolution and tens of millions dying in famine and violence, but it has made remarkable progress since Mao. It appears that the government is well-liked today (although nobody knows anything about China [1]) and economic development is continuing. The government can easily deal with a bit of discontent if required (by, say, putting a million people in concentration camps), but if there was a genuine crisis and people realised that the government had terribly mismanaged things or economically stagnates long before it becomes truly wealthy, the CCP might find that the mandate of heaven has shifted.

1. https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/03/21/nobody-knows-anything-a...